“双碳”目标下我国大型水电可持续发展经济性研究

Based on the “double carbon” target economic research of large hydropower forsustainable high-quality development

水力发电是传统的高效、优质可再生能源,技术成熟可靠,大型水电站的开发建设,是双碳目标下推进能源生产和消费革命,构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系的必要路径。我国水力技术可开发资源丰富,但开发程度已过半,未来待开发资源主要集中在川、滇、藏等西南偏远地区,大型水电资源日益稀缺,水电项目建设条件日趋复杂,环境敏感因素相对增多、移民安置难度大,建造成本快速攀升,同时面临着高弃电、低电价等新的市场环境,进一步加剧了大型水电项目开发难度。通过对四川在建水电站在现有条件下的经济效益分析研究,提出我国存量大型水电资源可持续、高质量发展路径。

Hydroelectric power generation is a traditional and efficient,high-quality renewable energy source with mature and reliable technology.The development and construction of large-scale hydropower stations is a necessary path to promote energy production and consumption revolution under the dual carbon goal,and to build a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient energy system.China has abundant exploitable resources in hydropower technology,but the level of development has exceeded half.In the future,the resources to be developed will mainly be concentrated in remote areas in southwestern China such as Sichuan,Yunnan,and Tibet.Large hydropower resources are becoming increasingly scarce,and the construction conditions of hydropower projects are becoming increasingly complex.Environmental sensitive factors are relatively increasing,and resettlement is difficult.The construction cost is rapidly rising,while facing new market environments such as high electricity waste and low electricity prices,Further exacerbating the difficulty of developing large-scale hydropower projects.By analyzing and studying the economic benefits of hydropower stations under construction in Sichuan under existing conditions,a sustainable and high-quality development path for China’s existing large-scale hydropower resources is proposed.