不可移动文物季节性暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估方法研究

Seasonal Rainstorm and Flood Risk Assessment Method for Immovable Cultural Relics

不可移动文物作为文化遗产中极为重要的组成部分,所面临的暴雨洪涝灾害风险正不断升高。针对不可移动文物暴雨洪涝灾害风险防范需求,以中国福建省18个县(市)的24处全国文物重点保护(简称国保)古遗址为例,基于自然灾害风险评估理论,采用指标体系法从致灾因子、孕灾环境及文物本体3个方面构建了不可移动文物季节性暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估方法。结果表明:风险评估结果能很好地反映出暴雨洪涝灾害的季节性差异,说明该评估方法具有可行性;福建省第二季度暴雨洪涝危险性最高,其次为第一和第三季度,不同季度危险性空间分布存在明显差异;第一、二季度沿海和北部县域的国保古遗址暴雨洪涝风险高,中部县域风险较低;第三、四季度风险整体为沿海高、内陆低。暴雨洪涝灾害风险季节性差异结果可为不可移动文物防灾减灾规划与监测防范措施提供科学参考。

Objectives:As an important part of cultural heritage,immovable cultural relics are facing increasing risks of rainstorm and flood disaster.In order to improve the capabilities of prevention on rainstorm and flood disaster for immovable cultural relics,we proposed a risk assessment method based on the theory of natural disaster risk assessment considering the seasonal variation of rainstorm and flood disaster,and took 24 national ancient sites in 18 counties in Fujian Province as an example.Methods:The regional Lmoments method was used to acquire the rainfall values of various return periods in different season,and analyze the characteristics of seasonal rainstorm and flood risk.We estimated the risk from three aspects:Hazard factors,disaster formative environment and hazard bearing body of cultural heritages.The coefficient of variation method,entropy weight method and Delphi method were adopted to calculate the weight of those three aspects.Results:The results show that the seasonal difference of risk assessment results is obvious,which indicates that the assessment method is feasible.The risk of rainstorm and flood was the highest in the second quarter,followed by the first and the third quarters,and the spatial distribution of risk in different seasons was significantly different.In the first and the second quarters,the risk of rainstorm and flood was high in coastal and northern counties,and low in central counties.The risks in the third and the fourth quarters were high in the coastal areas and low in the inland areas.Conclusions:The proposed model for immovable cultural relics can well reflect the seasonal difference of rainstorm and flood risk,and is suitable for regions with large seasonal difference of rainstorm and flood disaster.The results of seasonal differences can provide scientific reference for disaster prevention and mitigation planning for immovable cultural relics.