基于ARIMA模型探讨2008—2021年河北省流行性腮腺炎流行趋势

Epidemic trend of mumps in Hebei Province based on ARIMA model from 2008 to 2021

目的通过对2008—2021年河北省流行性腮腺炎发病趋势分析,建立差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,探讨其在短期预测中的应用,为提升今后的工作效率、科学防控提供参考。方法采集2008—2021年河北省流行病腮腺炎每月发病数,建立时间序列图。对其进行平稳性和白噪声检测。构建月发病数ARMIMA模型。确定(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)参数。对2022年发病数进行预测计算并与实际发生数进行拟合评价。结果通过残差白噪声检验(Ljung-Box Q),符合正态分布。选择ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12为最优模型方案。其中几个重要指标的数值BIC=11.003,P=0.696,平稳的R2=0.285和MAE=159.357均在建模的良好范围;预测数据与实际数据相对误差最大值为38.191%,最小值为-37.136%。控制在95%置信区间内。精度尚好。可用于对其他年份的数据预测。结论大理市应关注儿童青少年血压偏高问题,开展针对儿童血压偏高、超重/肥胖和饮酒相关的健康教育工作,以达到降低儿童青少年血压偏高检出率的目标。

Objective To analyze the incidence trend of mumps in Hebei Province from 2008 to 2021 by establishing a differential autoregressive moving average(ARIMA)model,and to discuss its application in short-term prediction,in order to provide technical support for improving future work efficiency and scientific prevention and control.Methods The monthly incidence of mumps in Hebei Province from 2008 to 2021 was collected,and the time series map was established.The stationarity and white noise were tested.The ARMIMA model of monthly incidence was established,and the(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)parameters were determined.The number of cases in 2022 was calculated and compared with the actual incidence.Results The results of residual white noise test(Ljun-BoxQ)conform to the normal distribution.The ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 was selected as the optimal model scheme.The values of these important indicators BIC=11.003,P=0.696,stationary R2=0.285 and MAE=159.357 were in the good modeling range;the maximum relative error between predicted data and actual data is 38.191%,and the minimum value is-37.136%.Controls were within the 95%confidence interval.The accuracy of the ARIMA model was good,and could be used for data prediction in other years.Conclusions The problem of elevated blood pressure in children and adolescents should be pay more attentionin Dali City.The next step is to carry out health education work related to elevated blood pressure,overweight/obesity and alcohol consumption in children,in order to achieve the goal of reducing the detection rate of elevated blood pressure in children and adolescents.