成渝地区双城经济圈碳达峰预测研究

The Prediction of Carbon Peaking in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

【目的/意义】分析预测成渝地区双城经济圈及44个市(区县)在2030年实现碳达峰的前景,为区域碳达峰提供建议。【设计/方法】采用LMDI分解法识别成渝地区碳排放的关键因素及重点区域;在此基础上,采用多情景分析和蒙特卡洛模拟对成渝地区及各市(区县)2020~2035年的碳排放量进行静态和动态模拟,测算演化路径与达峰概率。【结论/发现】静态模拟下成渝地区的碳排放仅在极低碳情景和低碳情景下可在2030年前达峰,动态模拟下的达峰概率为32.8%。绵阳市、遂宁市和眉山市等36个市(区县)在静态与动态模拟下均能在2030年前实现碳达峰;成都市、自贡市、泸州市等其他8个市(区县)在静态模拟的特定情景下无法实现碳达峰,在动态模拟下,成都市、泸州市、宜宾市和雅安市依然难以实现碳达峰目标,而南充市、自贡市、德阳市及乐山市的达峰概率分别为85.7%、55.42%、58.9%及20.4%。

[Purpose/Significance]This paper predicted and analyzed the prospects of carbon peaking before 2030 for the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and its 44 cities(districts and counties),and provided suggestions for regional carbon peaking.[Design/Methodology]LMDI decomposition method was used to identify key factors and key areas of the carbon emissions in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.On this basis,scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were used to simulate and calculate the evolution path and peak probability of carbon emissions of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and cities(districts and counties)from 2020 to 2035.[Conclusions/Findings]Under static simulation,carbon emissions of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle will reach peak before 2030 only under the extremely low carbon scenario and low carbon scenario.Under dynamic simulation,the peak probability is 32.8%.36 cities(districts and counties),including Mianyang,Suining,Meishan,etc.,will reach peak before 2030 either under static or dynamic simulations;the other 8 cities(districts and counties),including Chengdu,Zigong,Luzhou,etc.,are unable to reach peak under specific scenarios in static simulation.Under dynamic simulation,Chengdu,Luzhou,Yibin,and Ya’an are still unable to reach peak.The peak probabilities of Nanchong,Zigong,Deyang,and Leshan are 85.7%,55.42%,58.9%,and 20.4%,respectively.