摘要
【目的】水、能源、粮食是保障人类生存与福祉的重要物质基础,研究吉林省水-能源-粮食系统的耦合协调发展状况,以促进吉林省水、能源、粮食的可持续发展。【方法】以吉林省为研究区,建立水-能源-粮食(W-E-F)系统综合发展评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度模型定量评价2003—2020年W-E-F系统耦合协调状况,运用GM(1,1)预测2021—2030年耦合协调度。【结果】结果表明:吉林省W-E-F系统综合发展评价指数呈现波动上升趋势,由0.29增长至0.67,其中水资源系统发展指数对综合系统发展指数影响大;耦合度在0.88~0.99范围内,处于高水平耦合阶段,耦合协调关系由勉强失衡逐步发展到中级协调水平,表现出向好的趋势,预测2030年将达到高级协调,最后为促进吉林省W-E-F系统耦合协调发展提出了相关建议。【结论】耦合协调度模型能够有效定量评价吉林省水-能源-粮食系统的协调发展状况,为吉林省水-能源-粮食系统协调发展提供科学参考。
[Objective]Water,energy and food are important material bases to ensure human survival and well-being.We studied the coupled and coordinated development status of the water-energy-food system in order to promote the sustainable development of water,energy and food in Jilin Province.[Methods]Taking Jilin province as the study area,we established a comprehensive development evaluation index system of water-energy-food(W-E-F) system,used the coupling coordination degree model to quantitatively evaluate the coupling coordination status of W-E-F system from 2003 to 2020 and applied GM(1,1) to predict the coupling coordination degree from 2021 to 2030.[Results]The result showed that:the evaluation index of comprehensive development of W-E-F system showed a fluctuating upward trend in Jilin Province,from 0.29 to 0.67,in which the water resources system development index had a great influence on the comprehensive system development index;the coupling degree ranges from 0.88 to 0.99,which was in the high level coupling stage,and the coupling coordination relationship gradually developed from barely imbalanced to the intermediate coordination level,showed a trend toward good and will reach high level coordination in 2030.Finally,we provided some suggestions to promote the coupled and coordinated development of W-E-F system in Jilin Province.[Conclusion]The coupling coordination degree model can effectively and quantitatively evaluate the coordinated development of water-energy-food system,and its result will provide scientific references for the coordinated development of water-energy-food system in Jilin Province.
作者
邓健
刘文新
DENG Jian;LIU Wenxin(Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Changchun 130102,Jilin,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 101408,China)
出处
《水利水电技术（中英文）》
北大核心
2023年第10期126-136,共11页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42071275)
中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项子课题(XDA23060405)
中国工程院院地合作重点咨询项目(JL2020-001)。
