户籍制度改革的效应、方向和路径

The Hukou System Reform:Benefits,Orientation and Approach

户籍制度改革是破除城乡二元结构的重要突破口,也是从供给侧和需求侧获得高质量发展新动能,以及保持和增强社会流动性的关键之举。根据中国式现代化的要求推进这个领域的改革,能够创造真金白银、立竿见影的改革红利,相应地,改革的延误也有着显著的机会成本和实际损失。本文着眼于从供需两侧揭示户籍制度改革可以创造的巨大收益,同时警示改革的延迟可能导致不利于剩余劳动力转移的“逆刘易斯过程”,以及不利于生产率提高的“逆库兹涅茨过程”。在做出中国社会流动性趋于减弱的判断之后,本文阐释了户籍制度改革如何有效促进社会流动,进而提高人口的生育意愿。本文也探讨了推进这项改革的过程中,存在的改革激励不相容问题,并就拆除这一激励障碍提出政策建议。

The reform of the household registration(hukou) system is essential for China to eliminate the dual structure that divides urban-rural development,gain new momentum for sustained economic growth from both the supply side and demand side,and promote social mobility.In this paper,we dispel some misunderstandings,unveil where the reform dividends lie,explain why the reform has not been completed as expected,and propose policy suggestions.Firstly,the hukou reform will generate dividends from both the supply and demand sides.Such dividends are embodied in(1) the increase of labor supply by releasing surplus labor force in agriculture,(2) the enhancement of productivity by reallocating laborers from low-productivity sectors(regions) to high-productivity sectors(regions),(3) the expansion of household consumption by securing jobs and strengthening social security of new urban residents,and(4) the promotion of social mobility by providing more equal access among population groups to education,work,social security and better room for family development.Secondly,the hukou reform yields substantial benefits;however,delaying the reform will incur high opportunity costs and actual loss.That is to say,the tardiness of the reform may result in two adverse processes that slacken the growth of the Chinese economy.The first is the reversed Lewis process,which tends to impede surplus laborers from moving out of rural sectors and even results in an opposite movement of laborers.The second is the reversed Kuznets process,which is the consequence of the reversed Lewis process,manifested as the movement of laborers from high-productivity sectors to low-productivity ones.Thirdly,the hukou reform will help to promote social mobility,improve people's well-being,and increase fertility by ensuring high-level and equal access to basic public services.Social mobility is usually impacted by two factors.One is institutional constraints,such as the hukou system.The other is market opportunities,such as the speed of economic growth which is essential to create jobs.Since China's economic growth has been slowing down,the market opportunities reduce.To offset such as trend,completely eliminating the remaining institutional constraints is crucial for Chinese society to promote social mobility.The hukou system is one of such constraints.Fourthly,the hukou reform,though being on the reform agenda,remains incomplete due to the existence of incentives incompatibility between the central and local governments.Since the local governments are supposed to bear most of the reform costs,whereas they can hardly harvest the reform dividends,they tend to lack the incentive and initiative to carry out the reform timely.Therefore,breaking obstacles resulting from such an incentive incompatibility requires reasonably dividing the responsibilities in implementing the reform based on benefits and costs sharing between different levels of government.Finally,we propose an approach to carry out the hukou reform.First,it is necessary to combine the hukou reform with building a social welfare system fully covering all groups of the population and securing people's whole life cycle.The equalized provision of basic public services is a necessary precondition to pushing forward the reform.Second,an urgent task in the short and medium run is to seize the window period before 2035 to break the urban-rural dual structure.This requires formulating the incentive mechanism,timetable,and road map to coordinate corresponding tasks with the objectives of basically-achieved modernization.To this end,some of the key indicators reflecting the achievements of balanced development between rural and urban areas should be included in the work assessment of the local governments.Third,necessary incentives should be provided for the local governments to encourage their initiatives for advancing reform.In this regard,the central government should link the number of new urban residents to the quotas such as land supply,projects of transportation and other infrastructure construction,and public facility development.