地方公共债务与资源配置效率:企业间全要素生产率分布差异的视角

Local Public Debt and Resource Allocation Efficiency:Analysis Based on the Distribution Differences of TFP among Firms

地方公共债务是中国宏观政策的重要工具,高企的债务规模也成为解释资源配置效率不可或缺的政策环境。本文借助微观数据考察了地方公共债务对资源配置效率的影响及其作用机制,研究发现,地级市公共债务负债率每提升10个百分点,微观企业全要素生产率标准差提高1.28个百分点,表明地方公共债务增长显著降低了资源配置效率,不利于宏观全要素生产率提升。地方公共债务抑制资源配置效率的机制在于集约边际和外延边际两个维度:一方面在要素市场挤占金融资源,对产品市场产生非对称性冲击,带来企业“融资贵”的难题,更重要地是扩大了企业间融资成本和市场势力的差异;另一方面影响企业进入、退出市场,降低行业竞争性。进一步分析发现,地方公共债务的抑制效果在金融发展水平较低、财政透明度更低的地区更显著,对资本密集型的行业影响更大。本文直接回答了地方公共债务如何影响资源配置效率这一重要问题,并重新审视了地方公共债务导致的效率风险,有助于理顺政府—市场关系,寻找高质量发展的动力。

Currently,China has entered a phase characterized by high-quality development,wherein the crucial ingredient for accomplishing such development lies in the augmentation of macro-level total factor productivity(TFP).The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China explicitly emphasizes the necessity of pursuing high-quality development as the overarching task,which entails devoting effort to augmenting TFP.At the macroeconomic level,the overall level of TFP is determined by the TFP at the firm level and the efficiency of resource allocation among firms.In practice,market imperfections and government policies can both contribute to market distortions,leading to suboptimal allocation of resources among firms.Following the onset of the global economic crisis in 2008,a notable phenomenon emerged in China's economic macro-governance whereby local government financing vehicles experienced rapid growth,leading to the massive accumulation of local public debt.The analysis of local public debt serves as a significant framework for elucidating the evolution in resource allocation efficiency in China.What is the correlation between local public debt and the efficiency of resource allocation among firms,and what are the underlying mechanisms?The study contributes in three ways.Firstly,it provides a direct answer to the crucial problem regarding the impact of local public debt on resource allocation efficiency.Additionally,it enhances and broadens the existing research on the influence of macroeconomic policies on resource allocation efficiency by using microdata from the post-2008 period.Existing literature mostly focuses on the effects of tax policies,industrial policies,and other macroeconomic policies,as well as market conditions,on resource allocation efficiency.This work aims to broaden the research scope of macroeconomic policies and the policy sources pertaining to resource misallocation.Secondly,it aims to analyze the subtle economic risks associated with China's local public debt.The existing literature mostly focuses on the immediate risks of debt default.However,given that China's economy has transitioned to a new phase of high-quality development,which necessitates improvements in resource allocation efficiency,this paper's findings offer microscopic evidence to support high-quality development.Finally,this work enhances the understanding of the relationship between government debt and its economic implications,as well as the impact of macroeconomic policies on resource allocation efficiency.The prevailing scholarly consensus suggests that the primary mechanism via which government debt affects the economy is the intensive margin.Additionally,existing literature mostly focuses on the factor market when analysing resource misallocation.However,this paper examines the effects of government debt on both the intensive and extensive margins of firms,as well as the phenomenon of resource misallocation in the product market.This study employs the instrumental variable method to address potential endogeneity issues.The primary empirical findings indicate that the magnitude of local public debt has a substantial impact on the standard deviation of TFP within city-industries.This,in turn,results in greater resource misallocation and a decrease in resource allocation efficiency.Following a comprehensive set of robustness tests,the obtained results remain valid and robust.The mechanism analysis reveals that local public debt hinders resource allocation efficiency through two dimensions,namely the intensive margin and the extensive margin.The former one pertains to the phenomenon of squeezing local financial resources in the factor market,resulting in higher financing costs for local firms,and simultaneously widening the disparity in financing costs among firms.Specifically,the disparity in financing costs mostly manifests in the amount of assets,ownership,and employee size of firms.In the product market,the market power of firms in the infrastructure building sector and state-owned firms has increased,resulting in a widening gap in market power among firms.The extensive margin plays a crucial role in influencing the entry and exit of firms within a market,in accordance with the principle of survival of the fittest,hence impacting the overall competitiveness of the industry.Subsequent heterogeneity analysis has revealed that the impact of local public debt on resource allocation efficiency is more pronounced in regions characterized by lower levels of financial development and fiscal transparency,and in capital-intensive industries,while no significant impact is observed in labor-intensive and technology-intensive industries.The policy implications of this study encompass the need to prioritize the economic risks associated with local public debt which hampers resource allocation efficiency.Currently,there is a pressing necessity to expedite the development and enhancement of a contemporary and accountable fiscal framework,while maximizing the benefits of a public and transparent local government bond market.Furthermore,in order to fully utilize the influential role of the market mechanism in resource allocation,it is imperative to continue reforms to develop the socialist market economy.This entails establishing a more comprehensive factor market and product market that is oriented towards market-based allocation systems and mechanisms.Additionally,it is crucial to develop a nationwide system that operates in accordance with market rules,promoting a survival of the fittest approach.In addition,the present imperative undertaking in economic system reform entails the establishment of a unified national market that is efficient and allows fair competition within the factor market and product market.