城市群空间结构能否助力经济与碳减排的双赢发展?——基于中国19个城市群的实证分析

Can the Spatial Structure of Urban Agglomerations Contribute to the Win-win Situation Between Economic Development and Carbon Emission Reduction?An Empirical Analysis Based on 19 Urban Agglomerations in China

城市群作为我国区域经济发展的重要单元和构建城镇协调发展的关键主体,探讨城市群空间结构对实现经济发展和碳减排的双赢意义重大。本研究将我国19个城市群作为研究样本,利用双向固定效应模型实证分析了2006—2019年我国城市群空间结构对绿色发展指数的影响,探讨了其作用机制以及城市群空间结构对不同类型城市群的异质性影响。结果表明:我国多数城市群目前为多中心空间结构,但有向单中心空间结构转变的趋势;城市群空间结构指数和绿色发展指数之间呈现“N”型关系;产业结构能够在城市群空间结构影响绿色发展指数的过程中起到负向调节作用,科技水平和分工水平能够起到间接中介作用;城市群空间结构对绿色发展指数的影响存在城市群中心度特征的异质性,低中心度城市群向多中心空间结构演变、高中心度城市群向单中心空间结构演变时更有助于降低城市群绿色发展指数,实现经济增长与碳减排协同发展。

Urban agglomerations are important units of regional economic development and key to coordinating urban development in China.Discussing the spatial structure of urban agglomerations is of great significance to the win-win situation between economic development and carbon emission reduction.Taking 19 urban agglomerations in China as research samples,the study empirically analyzes the influence of spatial structure of urban agglomerations on green development index from 2006 to 2019 by using two-way fixed effect model(TWFE),and explores its mechanism of action and the influence on different types of urban agglomerations.Results show that most urban agglomerations in China are multi-centered,but also showing single-centered trends.There is an N shaped relationship between the spatial structure of urban agglomeration and the green development index.Industrial structure play a negative regulating role in the process of the spatial structure of urban agglomeration affecting the green development index,and the level of science and technology and of division of labor play an indirect intermediary role.The influence of spatial structure of urban agglomerations on green development index is characterized by the heterogeneity of centrality characteristics of urban agglomerations.Both the evolution of low centrality urban agglomerations to polycentric spatial structure,and of high-centrality urban agglomerations to monocentric spatial structure are more conducive to the reduction of green development index of urban agglomerations.