基于2种统计分析模型解析网状河流的长期污染趋势和污染源贡献——以椒江为例

In-depth understanding of long-term pollution trends and pollution source contributions of reticulated rivers based on multiple statistical analysis models——Taking Jiaojiang River as an example

文章以椒江为例,对网状河流水质和污染源进行了研究。为了识别椒江水质的主要参数和潜在污染源,运用PCA和相关性分析筛选出CODMn、DO、NH3-N、TP和FL共5个显著的水质指标来代表椒江2016—2020年间的水质数据集,并运用WQI评价水质。运用APCS-MLR模型和PMF模型,对污染最严重的椒南流域点位的水质参数进行了分析,以进一步探索4个潜在的污染源及其贡献。APCS-MLR模型溯源结果显示:生活污水(28.83%);雨洪径流(20.42%);工业废水(16.49%);农业源(8.98%);未识别源(25.27%)。PMF模型溯源结果显示:生活污水(39.24%);雨洪径流(26.49%);工业废水(19.22%);农业源(15.04%)。2种模型的源解析结果基本一致,准确性较高。该结果可以为椒江制定水质管理及污染控制对策提供科学依据,同时,为网状河流的治理提供技术理论支撑。

Taking Jiaojiang River as an example,the water quality and pollution sources of Jiaojiang River were studied.To identify the main parameters and potential pollution sources of Jiaojiang River,five significant water quality indexes,CODMn,DO,NH3-N,TP and FL,were selected by PCA and correlation analysis to represent the water quality data set from 2016 to 2020.And the water quality was evaluated by WQI.Because Jiaonan watershed was the most polluted area,the water quality parameters of several points in Jiaonan watershed were analyzed to further explore the potential pollution sources and their contributions.Using APCSMLR model and PMF model,four potential pollution sources were identified,and the contribution of each pollution source was calculated.The traceability results of APCS-MLR model were as follows:domestic sewage(28.83%);stormwater runoff(20.42%);industrial wastewater(16.49%);agricultural non-point source(8.98%).In addition,unidentified sources accounted for 25.27%.The traceability results of PMF model were as follows:domestic sewage(39.24%),stormwater runoff(26.49%),industrial wastewater(19.22%)and agricultural non-point source(15.04%).The source analysis results of the two models were the same,which confirmed the accuracy of the traceability results.The research results can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of water quality management and pollution control countermeasures of Jiaojiang,and provide a theoretical and technical support for the treatment of reticulated rivers.