中国食物生产消费年际变化特征及食物供给安全分析

Analysis of the interannual change characteristics of food production and consumption and food supply safety in China

通过收集数据,分析了1961—2018年中国食物生产消费系统的变化情况,总结了生产消费系统的趋向规律,根据此变化特征探讨了当前中国食物供给安全情况和未来趋势。结果表明,随着中国居民生活水平的提高,中国居民年生产和消费食物量中植物性食物占比略微下降,但在2018年仍分别占食物生产量的88.33%、食物消费量的88.58%;动物性食物生产和消费量占比整体上升,生产量从1961年的3.19%上升到2018年的11.01%,消费量从1961年的3.19%上升到2018年的10.67%,饮食结构逐渐倾向于多样化。供给安全方面,粮食自给率超过95%,但食物种类结构性矛盾仍然突出,豆类及坚果、奶和水产品进口需求量较大。《中国居民膳食指南(2016)》膳食结构情境下,除了奶类,2018年中国居民人均食物生产量完全能满足所有的食物需求。最后,从生产技术、生产结构、农业政策和膳食结构等方面提出了一些保障食物供给安全的建议。

By collecting data,the changes of China’s food production and consumption system from 1961 to 2018 were analyzed,and the trend rules of the production and consumption system were summarized.According to the characteristics of this change,the current safety situation and future trend of food supply in China were discussed.The results showed that with the improvement of the living standard of Chinese residents,the proportion of plant food in the annual production and consumption of Chinese residents decreased slightly,but it still accounted for 88.33%of food production and 88.58%of food consumption in 2018.The proportion of animal food production and consumption increased as a whole,production increased from 3.19%in 1961 to 11.01%in 2018,and consumption in⁃creased from 3.19%in 1961 to 10.67%in 2018.The diet structure gradually tended to diversify.In terms of supply safety,the self-suf⁃ficiency rate of grain exceeded 95%,but the structural contradiction of food types was still prominent,and the import of beans,nuts,milk and aquatic products was in high demand.In the context of the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents(2016),except for milk,the per capita food production of Chinese residents could fully meet all food needs in 2018.Finally,some suggestions for ensur⁃ing the safety of food supply were put forward from the aspects of production technology,production structure,agricultural policy and dietary pattern.