2010—2020年全球玉米进出口贸易格局分析及展望

Analysis of global corn import and export trade pattern from 2010 to 2020 and expectation

玉米在全球粮食安全和农产品贸易中的地位突出。本文利用2010—2020年主要的玉米贸易国家的生产和进出口数据,系统分析了当前全球玉米贸易特点及存在的问题,并展望了未来玉米产业的发展趋势。结果表明:(1)2010—2020年全球玉米种植面积、总产量和单产均呈现增长趋势,但各国玉米单产年际间波动较大,存在明显的地区间差异;中国玉米单产水平与发达国家相比还有较大提升空间,东北地区是我国玉米第一主产区。(2)2010—2020年美国、巴西和阿根廷年均玉米出口量位居世界前三,合计超过全球出口量的60%;日本、墨西哥、韩国和中国年均玉米进口量位居世界前四,合计超过全球进口量的30%。2010—2020年,中国玉米进口来源地主要有乌克兰、美国、老挝、缅甸、泰国等;中国玉米主要出口到朝鲜、越南、加拿大和俄罗斯等国家,出口量呈下降趋势,目标市场主要集中在亚洲。(3)2022年,预计世界玉米种植面积和产量会出现双增的局面,受价格和政策的影响,中国玉米种植面积将稳中略降,但国内玉米供需保持稳定;从进出口水平上来看,全球粮价上涨,我国粮食进口成本明显增加,玉米进口量将下降,但仍处高位,玉米替代品的谷物进口将增加。总体而言,玉米供需、国家政策、国际局势均会影响全球玉米贸易,为保障中国玉米贸易安全,需提高玉米单产水平,扩大玉米贸易规模,稳定玉米价格,优化玉米进出口贸易战略,提升中国玉米市场在国际玉米市场的影响力。

Corn plays a prominent role in global food security and agricultural trade.Using the production and import and export data of major corn trading countries from 2010 to 2020,this article systematically analyzed the current global corn trade characteristics and existing problems,and looked forward to the future development trend of the corn industry.The results showed that:(1)From 2010 to 2020,the global maize planting area,total production and yield all showed an increasing trend,but the inter-annual fluctuation of maize yield in various countries was large,and there were obvious regional differences;the level of maize yield in China was similar to that in developed countries.There is still much room for improvement.Northeast China was the first major corn producing area in my country.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the annual average corn export quantity of the United States,Brazil and Argentina ranked among the top three in the world,exceeding 60%of the global exports in total;Japan,Mexico,South Korea and China rank in the top four of the world in terms of annual average corn import quantity,accounting for more than 30%of global imports.From 2010 to 2020,China's corn import sources mainly include Ukraine,the United States,Laos,Myanmar,Thailand,etc.;China's corn was mainly exported to North Korea,Vietnam,Canada,Russia and other countries,with a downward trend in export quantity,and the target market is mainly concentrated in Asia.(3)In 2022,it was expected that the world's corn planting area and production will double increase.Affected by prices and policies,China's corn planting area will be stable and slightly decreased,but domestic corn supply and demand will remain stable;from the perspective of import and export levels,Global food prices rise,China's grain import costs has increased significantly,and the import quantity of corn will decline,but it will remain at a high level,and the import of corn substitutes will increase.In general,corn supply and demand,national policies,and the international situation could affect the global corn trade.In order to ensure the safety of China's corn trade,it was necessary to increase the level of corn yield,expand the scale of corn trade,stabilize corn prices,optimize corn import and export trade strategies,and improve China's corn trade and the influence of the corn market in the international corn market.