四川地区流动重力观测及其在地震预测中的应用

Mobile Gravity Observation and Application of Earthquake Prediction in Sichuan Area

通过回顾四川地区测网变迁和震例总结,客观阐述四川流动重力观测的发展历程及其在地震趋势判定中的应用效能。结果表明,利用流动重力资料观测到高梯度带、四象限分布、零值线拐弯等重力场时变异常信号,对川滇菱形块体内部及边界带发生的汶川地震、芦山地震、九寨沟地震、泸定地震等地震进行了准确的中期预测,尤其在强震地点判定上预测效果较好,准确率达60%。

By reviewing survey network changes and the summary of earthquake cases,we objectively expound the development process of Sichuan mobile gravity observation and its application efficiency in earthquake trend determination.The results show that the time-varying abnormal signals of gravity field such as high gradient zone,four quadrant distribution and zero line turning are observed by using mobile gravity data,and the Wenchuan,Lushan,Jiuzhaigou and Luding earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan prismatic block and boundary zone are accurately predicted in the medium term,especially in the determination of strong earthquake location,with an accuracy rate of 60%.