2017-2019年江苏省淮安市大气PM_(2.5)与儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量相关性

The relationship between PM_(2.5)and daily outpatient visits of pediatric respiratory diseases in Huai'an of Jiangsu,2019-2019

目的分析淮安市大气PM_(2.5)对儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响,为开展空气污染的健康风险管理,制定儿童健康干预措施提供科学依据。方法收集2017-2019年淮安市大气污染物浓度及气象数据,妇幼保健院呼吸系统疾病门诊量数据、采用基于Poisson分布的广义相加模型(GAM),分析大气PM_(2.5)日均浓度与儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量的关系及其滞后效应。结果2017-2019年淮安市大气PM_(2.5)日平均浓度为47.49μg/m3,超标率为16.53%。单污染物模型分析显示PM_(2.5)与儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量呈正相关。单日滞后效应分析结果表明PM_(2.5)污染在lag0d~lag4d出现危害效应,且对门诊量的影响差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05),且在当天达到最大值,健康风险增加0.94%(95%CI:0.86%~1.03%)。累积滞后效应分析结果发现,PM_(2.5)污染在1~5 d(lag01~lag05)的差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05),且在累积滞后3 d(lag03)达到最大值,健康风险增加1.09%(95%CI:0.03%~2.14%)。结论2017-2019年淮安市大气PM_(2.5)浓度对儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量有显著影响,且PM_(2.5)浓度增加会导致儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的增加,需要采取措施减少对PM_(2.5)的吸入。

Objective To analyze the effects of PM_(2.5) on the daily visits for respiratory diseases of children in Huai'an so as to provide scientific evidence for conducting health risk management of air pollution and developing child health intervention measures.Methods The data of air pollutant concentrations and meteorological data in Huai'an,and the data of visits of respiratory diseases in Huai'an Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital from 2017 to 2019 were collected,and the relationship between the daily average concentration of PM_(2.5)and the daily visits of pediatric respiratory diseases in Huai'an from 2017 to 2019,as well as the single-day lag effect and cumulative lag effect,were analyzed using the generalized additive model(GAM)based on Poisson distribution.Results The daily average concentration of PM_(2.5)in Huai'an from 2017 to 2019 was 47.49μg/m,with the exceeding rate of 16.53%.The results of single pollutant model show that PM_(2.5)was positively correlated with the number of daily visits for respiratory diseases of children.The single day lag effect analysis results showed that the impact of PM2s on the number of outpatient services had a harmful effect from lagod to lag4d(all P<0.05),and lagod had the maximum value,the health risk increased by 0.94%(95%CI:0.86%-1.03%).The results of cumulative lag effect showed that PM2s had statistical significance(P<0.05)from the 1-5 d(lag01-lag05),and 03d(lag03)had the maximum value,the health risk increased by 1.09%(95%CI:0.03%-2.14%).Conclusions The PM25 concentration in Huai'an from 2017 to 2019 had a significant impact on the daily visits for respiratory diseases of children;the increase of PM2s concentration can lead to an increase in the daily visits of pediatric respiratory diseases;measures need to be taken to reduce PM_(2.5)inhalation.