基于自回归移动平均模型评估张掖市手足口病发病情况

Evaluation of incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease in Zhangye city based on autoregressive integrated moving average model

目的构建适合张掖市的乘积季节自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA),预测手足口病发病趋势,并对其效果进行评价。方法根据发病时间和报告地区统计的2012年1月至2022年12月张掖市手足口病月发病数资料,通过SPSS 26.0软件构建时间序列图,并拟合ARIMA乘积季节模型,使用该模型对张掖市2022年手足口病的月发病人数进行内部验证,进一步预测2023年1―12月张掖市手足口病月发病人数。结果张掖市手足口病发病情况呈季节波动的周期性趋势,建立的ARIMA(1,0,1)×(1,1,0)_(12)模型拟合情况较好(R^(2)=0.758),同时该模型残差是白噪声序列(Ljung-Box Q=15,P=0.435),将2022年预测发病人数与实际发病人数进行比较,结果显示实际值大部分落在了预测值的95%置信区间内,模型预测基本符合实际发病情况。2023年手足口病预测值最高出现在5月,与2021年和2022年发病主高峰月份近似。结论建立的ARIMA模型可以较好地预测张掖市2022年手足口病的发病趋势,对于疾病的短期预测有重要意义,同时也可为张掖市手足口病防控措施提供重要依据。

Objective To establish a multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model suitable for Zhangye city to predict the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)and to evaluate the performance of this model.Methods The data of incident HFMD cases each month in Zhangye city from January 2012 to December 2022 were collected and grouped by time and area.SPSS 26.0 software was applied to construct a time series chart and fit a seasonal ARIMA model.The numbers of monthly incident HFMD cases in Zhangye city in 2022 were used for internal verification of this model.The model was further employed to predict the number of incident HFMD cases in Zhangye every month from January to December in 2023.Results The incidence of HFMD in Zhangye city showed seasonal cycles.The ARIMA(1,0,1)×(1,1,0)_(12) model demonstrate good fitting(R^(2)=0.758),the residuals of which were white noise(Ljung-Box Q=15,P=0.435).Comparison between the predicted number of cases and the actual number of cases showed that the most of the actual values fell within the 95%confidence intervals of the predicted values,i.e.,the prediction of the model basically coincided the real incidence.According to the predicted values for 2023,the peak of HFMD would be observed in May,similar to the peak months of incidence in 2021 and 2022.Conclusion The ARIMA model developed in this study can predict the incidence of HFMD in Zhangye city in 2022,which may be of great importance for short-term prediction of the disease,as well as inform the prevention and control of this disease in Zhangye city.