碳排放时空特征视角下山东农业绿色发展及影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Agriculture Green Development in Shandong Province from the Perspective of Tempo-spatial Characteristics of Carbon Emissions

“双碳”目标是农业碳减排的方向和绿色发展的重要标志。通过排放因子法对2002—2021年山东农业碳排放进行测算,分析了农业碳排放结构以及时空特征。基于STIRPAT模型探究了碳排放视角下山东农业绿色发展的影响因素。研究表明:山东省农业CO_(2) e排放量呈先增长后下降的趋势,农业碳排放强度持续下降;以农业生产为主、粮食高产地区碳排放较高,排放强度呈现“西部城市高、东部城市次之、中部城市低”的空间格局。经济发展水平、种植业生产效率、畜牧业碳排放强度、农村人口数量、农业生产结构、地区产业结构是农业碳排放的重要影响因素。据此提出山东农业绿色发展对策:加强低碳农业财政投入,提高农用物资利用效率,转变养殖业生产方式,树立低碳农业意识,分地区制定低碳农业绿色发展政策。

The"dual carbon goal"is an important indicator of the direction of agricultural carbon reduction and green development.The paper calculates the agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong from 2002 to 2021 using the carbon emission factor method,and analyzes the structure and tempo-spatial characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions.Based on the STIRPAT model,the influencing factors of agriculture green development in Shandong are explored from the perspective of carbon emissions.Research reveals that the CO_(2) equivalent emissions from agriculture in Shandong Province show a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,and the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions has been declining.There are high carbon emissions in the areas with high agricultural production and the emission intensity shows a spatial pattern of"high in west,followed by east,and low in central part".The level of economic development,production efficiency of planting,carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry,rural population,agricultural production structure,and regional industrial structure are important influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions.Upon this,countermeasures for agriculture green development in Shandong are proposed,such as increasing financial investment in low-carbon agriculture,improving the utilization efficiency of agricultural materials,changing the production mode of animal husbandry,cultivating low-carbon agriculture awareness,and setting up low-carbon agriculture green development policies in different regions.