“数字鸿沟”对RTA数字贸易规则网络发展的影响:从“信息鸿沟”到治理壁垒

Impact of the Digital Divide on the RTA Digital Trade Rules Networks:From the Information Divide to the Governance Barrier

RTA框架下的数字贸易规则正在快速发展,且呈现非均衡性特征。一方面,“数字鸿沟”的内涵不断扩展和延伸,逐渐由有形的“信息鸿沟”向无形的治理壁垒扩展,并深刻影响数字贸易规则的制定;另一方面,区域一体化框架下各经济体间的依赖度和相互影响力不断增强,使得数字贸易规则中的结构性力量不容忽视。为此,本文采用指数随机图模型,对RTA数字贸易规则网络形成的影响因素展开实证研究。结果表明:RTA数字贸易规则网络在数字贸易规模和数字技术水平方面呈现“马太效应”,在数字治理方面具有同配性。网络内生结构方面,网络的偏好依附和连通性均会影响RTA数字贸易规则网络中的关系形成。异质性分析结果表明:由于数字治理存在壁垒,发展中经济体仅发展数字贸易和数字技术是无法促进其参与RTA数字贸易规则网络的;经济体双方在数字服务贸易限制上的差异越小,达成RTA数字贸易规则的可能性就越高。进一步的机制研究验证了网络内生结构在RTA数字贸易规则网络关系构建中所产生的重要作用,网络内生结构在一定程度上解释了网络形成中的“马太效应”和“同配效应”。多层ERGM分析显示,各因素对不同规则条款网络影响呈现差异化特征,同时各规则条款网络间存在聚类效应,关系间存在相互促进作用。

Digital trade rules in the framework of regional trade arrangement(RTA) are undergoing rapid development,showing unbalanced characteristics.On the one hand,as the connotation of the digital divide expands,it has gradually expanded from the visible information divide to the invisible governance barrier,and has profoundly affected the formulation of rules;on the other hand,the strengthening of dependence and mutual influence between economies in the framework of regional integration highlights structural factors in digital trade rules.The construction of RTA digital trade rules is manifested as the process of seeking consistency and integration between different communities with obvious conflicts and differences,and the network analysis framework provides a necessary and effective method for researchers to observe the construction process of RTA digital trade rules.This paper first builds RTA digital trade rules networks based on DESTA and TAPED databases,and constructs a theoretical model.Based on the network theory,we infer the internal mechanism behind it,put forward corresponding hypotheses,and finally use the exponential random graph models to conduct empirical research around influencing factors of the formation of the RTA digital trade rules networks.The results show that the development of the RTA digital trade rules networks has a Matthew effect on the scale of digital trade and the level of digital technology.The higher the scale of digital trade and the level of digital technology of an economy,the more likely it is to participate in the construction of digital trade rules.The network is assortative in terms of digital governance.In terms of the depth of participation rules,the closer the depth of governance of the two parties are,the more inclined they are to reach RTA digital trade rules.In terms of the cross-border data supervision model,it is easier to reach RTA digital trade rules between economies with the same position on the supervision of cross-border data transfer.In terms of the endogenous structure of the network,the preferential attachment and connectivity of the network will affect the formation of relationships in the RTA digital trade rules networks.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that due to barriers to digital governance,developing economies cannot increase their participation in the RTA digital trade rules networks only through the development of digital trade and digital technology;and the smaller the difference between the two economies in digital services trade restrictiveness,the higher the possibility of reaching RTA digital trade rules.Mechanism analysis has verified the important role of the network endogenous structure in the construction of the network relationship of RTA digital trade rules.The introduction of the network endogenous structure is not only conducive to capturing the network distribution characteristics,but also explains the Matthew effect and assortativity in the formation of the network.Multi-layer ERGM analysis shows that the influence of various factors on the digital trade rules networks of different provisions shows differentiated characteristics.At the same time,there is a clustering effect between different networks,and a mutual promotion effect between relationships.This paper studies the formation of RTA digital trade rules from the perspective of the overall network,and better grasps relations between different nodes,with following policy implications.Firstly,when participating in RTA digital trade rules,China needs to coordinate the relation between technological development and rule governance.Secondly,China should actively establish network associations with center countries to achieve integration with high-standard digital trade rules.Finally,China should actively participate in the negotiation and governance of new digital trade rules,and quickly build a digital economic and trade cooperation network by focusing on easy-to-reach digital rules.