碳中和目标下海湾国家气候政策探析

The Climate Policies of the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries under Carbon Neutrality Goal

随着全球气候政治环境的变化,海湾国家在国际气候治理体系中的角色由“牵制者”转向“骑墙者”。在利益基础分析模型和选择性激励视角下,海湾国家气候政策演变是内生因素和外部驱动共同作用的结果。因其承受全球气候行动加速带来的压力、生态脆弱程度高、面临经济转型困境、国内减缓成本降低,以及提升国际形象的需要,海湾国家气候治理势在必行。为此,阿联酋、沙特、巴林和阿曼等国相继宣布21世纪中叶实现碳中和目标,其主要内容包括:增加清洁能源开发利用,降低化石能源依赖;研发推广碳捕集技术,减少温室气体结构性排放;通过植树造林增加碳汇,补偿碳排放。海湾国家在气候治理和绿色发展方面积极作为,取得了初步成效。与此同时,能源系统脱碳是实现碳中和的重要环节,这将导致高碳排放的化石能源使用减少,进而冲击海湾国家的地租型经济和食利契约,对其国际地位和国家治理带来挑战。海湾国家已开始为达到气候治理目标与可持续发展付出努力,但因其影响因素纷繁复杂,实现碳中和目标任重道远。

With the acceleration of global climate action and energy transition,the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC)countries have changed their roles from draggers to intermediates in the international climate governance system,and successively put forward the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of this century.From the perspective of Interest-Based Explanation Model and Selective Incentive,the driving mechanisms of the GCC countries'climate policies evolution encompass endogenous factors and external drivers.Climate governance in the GCC countries is imperative due to multiple factors,such as the high degree of ecological vulnerability,the lower domestic abatement costs,the predicament of economic transformation,the pressure of global climate action and energy transition,as well as the need to enhance their international image.Decarbonizing the energy system is an important part of achieving carbon neutrality,which,however,will lead to a reduction in the use of high-carbon-emission fossil energy,thus impact the GCC countries'rentier economy and social contracts,consequently challenge their international status and national governance.The GCC countries have initiated to make efforts to achieve climate governance goals and sustainable development,but there is still a long way to go to fully fulfill the goal of carbon neutrality due to the complex factors.