施工现场疫情防控风险评价方法

Risk assessment method of epidemic prevention and control in construction site

为准确科学地评估施工现场的疫情防控风险水平,通过文献查询、现场调研及专家咨询,构建了包含4个1级指标、17个2级指标的施工现场疫情防控风险体系,然后采用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)与可靠度区间法(Reliability Interval Method,RIM)综合确定各级指标的权重,利用综合评价方法建立施工现场疫情防控风险评估模型,最后以某施工项目为例,验证该评价模型的有效性。结果表明,该项目现场整体风险指数为2.42,风险等级为中风险,其中防控体系风险等级为中风险,现场管理风险为较低风险,人员管理风险为较高风险,物资设备风险为中风险,与施工现场实际相吻合,该评估模型能较为准确、客观地反映施工现场疫情防控风险水平。

This study aims to establish a risk assessment model for epidemic prevention and control in construction sites to accurately and scientifically assess the risk level of epidemic prevention and control in construction sites.Firstly,a literature search,site investigation,and expert consultation were used to determine the epidemic prevention and control risk index system at the construction site,containing 4 first-class indicators and 17 second-class indicators.On this basis,the indicator weight questionnaire was prepared and distributed to the relevant experts who filled in according to the importance of indicators.After sorting out the collected questionnaire data,the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method and Reliability Interval Method(RIM)are used to comprehensively determine the weight of indicators at all levels.After then,according to the comprehensive evaluation method,with the membership function,the evaluation model of epidemic prevention and control level in the construction site was constructed.The risk evaluation grade was divided into five levels and quantified with specific figures.Finally,a construction project is taken as an example and the risk indicators were scored are scored by experts.According to the evaluation model,the risk level of epidemic prevention and control of the project was determined,which was convenient to find out the weak links leading to epidemic management and verify the effectiveness of the evaluation model.The results show that:the overall risk index of the project is 2.42,and the risk level is medium risk.Among them,the risk level of the prevention and control system is medium risk,the risk of site management is low,the risk of personnel management is high,and the risk of materials and equipment is medium.The result is consistent with the actual construction site,which shows the evaluation model can accurately and objectively reflect the risk level of epidemic prevention and control in construction sites and provides a new reliable method for the analysis and evaluation of epidemic prevention and control level at the construction site.