我国数字经济发展新特征:非均衡性与趋势演进

New Characteristics of China’s Digital Economy Development: Non-equilibrium and Trend Evolution

本文测度了我国30个省(区、市)2013—2021年数字经济发展水平、均衡性及协调性,分析了其时空演进趋势。研究发现:(1)我国数字经济存在“东高西低”的不均衡现象。(2)Dagum基尼系数分解法结果显示,地区间数字经济发展差异是我国数字经济非均衡发展的主要原因。(3)从数字经济发展协调度指数可以看出,我国相邻省(区、市)间也存在显著的不均衡现象,且相邻省(区、市)越多越容易不均衡。(4)通过Kernel核密度估计法和空间Markov概率转移的分析发现,我国数字经济发展水平受相邻省(区、市)空间溢出效应的影响较为显著,且高水平地区有助于低水平地区摆脱“低水平发展困境”。本研究明确了我国数字经济发展非均衡性及时空演进特征,对驱动我国数字经济协同发展具有重要意义。

This paper measures the level of digital economic development, equity, and coordination in 30 provinces of China from 2013 to 2021 and analyzes their spatio-temporal evolution trends.The research findings are as follows:(1)China's digital economy exhibits a“high in the east, and low in the west”imbalance phenomenon.(2)Results from the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method show that regional disparities in digital economic development are the main cause of the uneven development of China's digital economy.(3)The Digital Economic Development Coordination Index indicates significant imbalances among neighboring provinces in China, and the more neighboring provinces there are, the more likely imbalances are to occur.(4)Analysis using Kernel density estimation and spatial Markov probability transition reveals that the level of digital economic development in China is significantly affected by spatial spillover effects among neighboring provinces, and high-level regions contribute to helping low-level regions escape from the“low-level development dilemma”.This study clarifies the unevenness and spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of China's digital economic development, which is of significant importance for driving the coordinated development of China's digital economy.