城镇化发展对城乡贫困的异质性影响研究——来自长三角41市的经验证据

Research on the Heterogeneous Impact of Urbanization Development on Urban and Rural Poverty——Empirical Evidence from 41 Cities in the Yangtze River Delta

基于2000—2020年长三角地区41个地级及以上城市面板数据,本文利用空间杜宾模型实证检验城镇化发展对城镇贫困和农村贫困的影响及其空间溢出效应,并分阶段进行异质性分析。结果表明:(1)在本地效应方面,城镇化发展有利于减缓城乡贫困,且农村减贫效应更强;(2)在空间溢出效应方面,本地城镇化发展会显著减缓周边地区城镇贫困和加剧农村贫困,且对农村贫困的影响程度更大;(3)分阶段看,2000—2012年城镇化发展更有利于本地农村减贫和周边地区城镇减贫,2013—2020年城镇化发展更有利于本地城镇减贫,后一阶段城镇化对周边地区农村贫困加剧作用更大。

Based on the panel data of 41 cities at the prefecture-level and above in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2020,this paper uses the Spatial Durbin model to empirically test the impact of urbanization development on urban and rural poverty as well as its spatial spillover effects.On this basis, the heterogeneity analysis was carried out in stages.The results show that:(1)With regards to the local effects, the development of urbanization is conducive to alleviating urban and rural poverty, and the effect of rural poverty alleviation is stronger.(2)Concerning spatial spillover effects, local urbanization development significantly alleviates urban poverty in surrounding areas aggravates rural poverty and with a higher degree of influence on rural poverty.(3)From a phased perspective, the urbanization development from 2000 to 2012 was more conducive to rural poverty alleviation in the region and urban poverty alleviation in surrounding areas.The development of urbanization from 2013 to 2020 was more conducive to local urban poverty alleviation, with stronger influence on the aggravation of rural poverty in the surrounding areas.