1990-2021年黄河流域耕地与其他农用地转化空间格局及对耕地适宜性的影响

Spatial pattern of transformation between cropland and other agricultural lands in the Yellow River Basin from 1990 to 2021 and its impact on cropland suitability

以30m分辨率土地覆盖栅格数据为基础,采用ArcGIS空间分析、土地利用转移矩阵、生态位等方法,分析黄河流域1990-2021年耕地与森林、灌木、草地等其他农用地的相互转化情况、空间格局演化特征及其对耕地适宜性的影响,为科学实施“进出平衡”制度、保障黄河流域粮食安全与高质量发展提供决策支撑。研究结果表明:1)1990-2021年黄河流域耕地向其他主要农用地净转出183.51万hm^(2),非耕农化率为4.9%,其中畜牧业发展对耕地的挤出效应最为明显。2)净转出耕地主要分布在青海、甘肃、陕西、山西以及蒙中等地区,其中乌兰察布、延安、榆林、忻州、吕梁、庆阳等地级行政区净转出面积较大,而蒙西、宁夏、豫北、山东等地区则以净转入为主。非耕农化率呈现与耕地净转出不同的分布格局,玉树、果洛、阿坝等地区耕地净转出较少但非耕农化率较高。3)黄河流域耕地与其他农用地转化空间格局演变对耕地的坡度、侵蚀风险、≥10℃积温、土壤pH等生态因子适宜性的影响是正向的,对年降水量、土壤质地和有机质含量等因子适宜性的影响是负向的,对综合适宜性的影响在整个流域层面是负向的,但在地级行政区层面,对更多数量地区的影响是正向的,特别是耕地资源较丰富的中下游地区。

Based on 30-meter resolution land cover grid data and applying advanced spatial analysis techniques such as ArcGIS,land use transfer matrix,and niche theory,this study conducted an in-depth analysis on the mutual conversion between cropland and other agricultural lands,such as forest,shrub,and grassland,in the Yellow River Basin from 1990 to 2021.The research aimed to provide decision support for the scientific implementation of the"Balance Between Land Input and Output"system to ensure food security and promote high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that:1)From 1990 to 2021,the net conversion of cropland to other agricultural lands in Yellow River Basin was 1.8351 million hectares,with a non-agricultural land conversion rate of 4.9%,and the displacement effect of livestock development on cropland was the most significant.2)The net conversion of cropland mainly occurred in Qinghai,Gansu,Shaanxi,Shanxi,middle Inner Mongolia,with larger net conversion areas in prefecture-level administrative regions such as Ulanqab,Yan’an,Yulin,Xinzhou,Lvliang,and Qingyang,while regions,such as western Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,northern Henan,and Shandong,were mainly net receivers of cropland.The distribution pattern of non-agricultural land conversion rate differed from that of net conversion of cropland,with higher non-agricultural land conversion rates in regions such as Yushu,Guoluo,and Aba,despite their lower net conversion of cultivated land.3)The spatial pattern evolution of conversion between cropland and other agricultural lands in the Yellow River Basin positively impacted the suitability of ecological factors for the croplands,such as slope,erosion risk,accumulated temperature above 10℃,and soil pH,and negatively impacted the suitability of annual precipitation,soil texture,and organic matter content for croplands.It also negatively impacted the comprehensive suitability of the croplands at the basin level,but positively impacted the comprehensive suitability of the croplands in more areas at the prefecture-level administrative region,especially in the middle and lower reaches with abundant cropland resources.