碳排放“双控”背景下的建筑能耗总量省际分配——基于公平与效率耦合的视角

Provincial allocation of total building energy consumption in the context of"Double Control"of carbon emissions:A perspective from coupling of equity and efficiency

中国碳达峰碳中和工作已由能耗“双控”向碳排放总量和强度“双控”转变,要求各领域妥善处理减污降碳与能源安全的关系。在此背景下,探寻兼顾区域发展需求与碳减排需要的建筑能耗总量省级分配方案,是建筑部门响应碳排放“双控”国家战略,实现建筑领域安全降碳的关键。基于公平-效率耦合的视角,文中提出地区内“公平与效率的适度兼顾”以及地区间“公平与效率兼顾程度相当”的原则,以碳排放总量目标为约束,构建建筑能耗总量省级分配模型。通过蒙特卡罗与数值模拟技术,获取2030年建筑能耗省级配额,并将其与以能耗总量目标为约束的建筑能耗总量省级分配结果对比。结果表明:无论是约束条件的满足程度,还是碳减排潜力的实现深度,以碳排放总量目标为约束的建筑能耗总量省级分配方案都是符合多维度要求的最优选择,其公平与效率兼顾程度为12%,公共建筑与城镇居住建筑将是未来节能减排的重点。

China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality work has gradually changed from"Dual control"of energy consumption to"Dual control"of total carbon emission and intensity,which requires all sectors to properly handle the relationship between carbon emission reduction and energy security.In this context,exploring a provincial allocation scheme of total building energy consumption that considers both needs of regional development and carbon emission reduction is the key to respond to the national strategy of"Dual control"of carbon emissions and achieve safe carbon reduction in the building sector.Based on the perspective of equity-efficiency coupling,this paper proposes the principle of"appropriate balance between equity and efficiency"within regions and"equal probability of realization"among regions,and constructs a provincial allocation model of total building energy consumption with the constraint of total carbon emission target.Through Monte Carlo and numerical simulation techniques,the provincial quotas of building energy consumption in 2030 are obtained and compared with the provincial allocation result of total building energy consumption constrained by the total energy consumption target.The results show that in terms of the degree of satisfaction of constraints and the depth of carbon emission reduction potential realization,the provincial allocation scheme of total building energy consumption constrained by the total carbon emission target is the optimal choice that meets the multi-dimensional requirements.Its realization probability is 12%,public buildings and urban residential buildings will be the focus of future energy conservation and emissions reduction.