优化营商环境改变了财政政策效率吗?——基于NKQ-DSGE模型

On Whether the Improvement of Business Environment Changes theEfficiency of Fiscal Policy Based on the NKQ-DSGE Model

优化营商环境降低了微观主体投资调整成本,改变了宏观经济政策运行的微观环境。构建具有微观基础的宏观NKQ-DSGE(New Keynesian with Tobin s Q-Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium)模型,研究“营商环境优化”对“财政政策提效”的影响。研究发现:优化营商环境会降低投资调整成本,从而增强政策的托宾Q效应,但对积极财政政策而言是一把双刃剑;对于财政支出政策和降低消费税政策,优化营商环境会加剧政策对私人投资的挤出效应,从而降低政策乘数和弱化政策效果;对于降低资本税政策和降低劳动税政策,优化营商环境会提升政策对私人投资的促进效应,从而提高政策乘数和强化政策效果。因此,应偏向于使用乘数较大的政策工具,同时政策工具之间应协调配合,实现财政政策从“加力”向“提效”转型。

On the macro level,the excessive burden of government debt has limited the space for fiscal policy to be strengthened,and it is necessary to improve the efficiency of the fiscal policy,rather than simply enhance the fiscal expenditures.On the micro level,in order to effectively reduce the institutional transaction costs of market entities and stimulate their operational vitality,China is vigorously optimizing the business environment.Institutional transaction costs are an important part of investment adjustment costs,and hence,optimizing the business environment will also decrease the costs of investment adjustment.Similar to monetary policy,fiscal policy also has the Tobin Q effect.Therefore,optimizing the business environment can enhance the Tobin Q effect of fiscal policy,which will theoretically help realize the transformation of fiscal policy.The existing NKQ-DSGE(New Keynesian with Tobin s Q-Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium)models have the following shortcomings in studying the macro effects of fiscal policy:1)they do not pay enough attention to the changes in investment adjustment costs;2)they do not completely separate fiscal policy from monetary policy;3)money demand is only related to consumption;and 4)they often assume that manufacturers maximize real profits,while in reality,manufacturers often pursue the maximization of nominal profits.This paper constructs a new NKQ-DSGE model,and makes the following improvements based the existing literature:first,it is assumed that the parameter of the investment adjustment cost function is variable,which establishes a correlation between“optimizing the business environment”and“reducing investment adjustment costs”,and thereby provides a micro foundation for“optimizing the business environment”to improve the“efficiency of fiscal policy”.The second is to fix the total amount of money as to eliminate the impact of monetary policy on the effect of fiscal policy.The third is to use the Cambridge equation to replace the money demand function with MIU(money in utility)and construct the general link between output and price level.The fourth is to add a capital goods manufacturing department with the goal of maximizing nominal profits.Based on the new research framework,this paper shows that improving the business environment can reduce the investment adjustment costs and enhance Tobin s Q effect indeed,but it is a double-edged sword for active fiscal policy.On the one hand,for government expenditure expansion and consumption tax reduction,improving the business environment will exacerbate the crowding out effect on investment,decrease the policy multipliers and weaken the policy effects.On the other hand,for capital tax reduction and labor tax reduction,improving the business environment will enhance the promotion effect on investment,increase the policy multipliers and strengthen the policy effects.Hence,the policy tools with large multipliers should be preferred.Meanwhile these tools should be coordinated with other tools to improve the fiscal policy efficiency.