财政支农强度、农业碳排放及空间溢出效应

Intensity of financial support for agriculture,agricultural carbon emissions and spatial spillover effects

财政支农作为我国政府调控农业生产的主要方式,取得了诸多引人瞩目的成果,但在我国“双碳”目标的要求下,亟需阐明财政支农对农业碳排放的影响关系。文章基于我国2011—2020年30个省份的面板数据,测算我国各地区的农业碳排放并运用空间杜宾模型进行了实证研究。结果表明:我国农业碳排放在2011—2020年呈现先上升后下降的趋势,各地区均取得了良好的碳减排效果;财政支农强度与农业碳排放具有空间相关性和集聚逐渐加强的特征;财政支农通过提供“碳足迹优惠”促进了本省与邻省农业碳排放提升,具有一定的空间溢出效应;人均耕地面积与土地生产率会正向影响农业碳排放,两者均存在不同程度的空间溢出性。最后,在上述结果的基础上,提出了部分政策建议。

As a main means of Chinese government's regulating agricultural production,financial support for agriculture has achieved many remarkable results.However,under the requirement of double carbon targets in China,it is urgent to clarify the relationship between financial support for agriculture and agricultural carbon emissions.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020,this paper measured the agricultural carbon emissions of each region in China and made an empirical study with spatial Durbin model.The results reveal that the agricultural carbon emissions in China have a trend of initial rise and later decline from 2011 to 2020,and good carbon reduction effects have been achieved in all regions;the intensity of financial support for agriculture and agricultural carbon emissions have the characteristics of spatial correlation and gradual strengthening of agglomeration;financial support for agriculture has promoted the increase of agricultural carbon emissions in the province and neighboring provinces through providing"carbon footprint discounts",which has some spatial spillover effects;and the per capita arable land area and land productivity will positively affect agricultural carbon emissions,and both have different degrees of spatial spillover.Finally,on the basis of the above results,it puts forward some policy suggestions.