“双碳”目标下中国能源消费碳排放量预测

Prediction of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China under the“dual carbon”goal

【目的】面对“碳达峰、碳中和”全球性主题,预测与模拟中国能源消费碳排放量,探索碳达峰时间及碳中和可实现性,为促进减排目标的实现提供理论依据。【方法】本文运用碳排放系数法测算1986—2019年中国26种能源消费的碳排放量,从经济、社会、环境、能源、技术5个方面出发,建立了包含18个变量的能源消费碳排放影响因素指标体系,利用Lasso回归筛选出5个主要因素。运用3种机器学习方法和Lasso回归构建了支持向量机回归(SVR)、随机森林(RF)、BP神经网络和Lasso-SVR、Lasso-RF、Lasso-BP共6种碳排放量预测模型,基于均方误差(MSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)对6种预测模型进行比较和分析。结合情景分析法设置新常态化情景、绿色低碳情景、2℃目标情景和1.5℃目标情景4种情景,选择最优预测模型对4种情景下中国2020—2060年的碳排放量进行模拟分析。【结果】研究显示:4种情景下,随着减排力度加强,中国碳达峰平台期逐渐缩短,平台期内碳达峰时间分别为2035、2029、2026、2025年,峰值分别为95.8亿、74.48亿、67.23亿、65.23亿tCO_(2)e,2℃目标情景和1.5℃目标情景下中国能如期实现碳中和目标,4种情景均可能实现2℃温升目标,但前两种情景不能实现1.5℃温升目标。【结论】4种情景下中国能源消费碳达峰峰值和达峰时间不尽相同,实现碳中和的可能性也有所差别。为尽早实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标,中国必须着力推动产业结构和能源结构优化,增加绿色资产投资,以技术进步助力减排事业发展。

[Objective]Facing the global issue of“carbon peak and carbon neutrality”,this study aimed to predict and simulate carbon emissions from energy consumption,explore the feasibility of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality time,and provide theoretical basis for promoting emission reduction.[Methods]In this study,the carbon emission coefficient method was used to calculate the carbon emissions from energy consumption in China from 1986 to 2019.Considering factors from the five aspects of economy,society,environment,energy,and technology,an indicator system including 18 variables was established,and five main factors were screened out by Lasso regression.Based on three machine learning methods and Lasso regression,six carbon emission prediction models including support vector regression(SVR),random forest(RF),back propagation neural network(BP),Lasso-SVR,Lasso-RF,and Lasso-BP were constructed.The models were evaluated based on the mean squared error(MSE)and mean average error(MAE).Combined with the scenario analysis method to set four scenarios of new normalization,green low-carbon,2℃ target,and 1.5℃ target,the best prediction model was selected to simulate and analyze China’s energy consumption carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060 under the four scenarios.[Results]Under the four scenarios,with the intensification of emission reduction efforts,China’s carbon peaking platform period is shortened.The time points of carbon peak during the platform period in China are 2035,2030,2026,and 2025 respectively,and the peak values are 9.580,7.448,6.723 and 6.523 Gt CO_(2)e.Under the 2℃ and 1.5℃ scenarios,China can achieve carbon neutrality as scheduled.Under all four scenarios China may achieve the 2℃ temperature rise target,but under the first two scenarios China will not achieve the 1.5℃ target.[Conclusion]Under the four scenarios,the peak value and peak time of China’s energy consumption carbon emissions are different,and the possibility of achieving carbon neutrality is also different.In order to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality as soon as possible,China must promote the optimization of industrial structure and energy system structure,increase investment in green assets,and help the development of emission reduction with technological progress.