“双碳”目标下中国省域绿色物流发展时空演变分析

Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of green logistics development in Chinese provinces under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals

中国物流业的绿色发展是“双碳”目标的重点关注领域。结合物流行业绿色发展内涵,研究构建了绿色物流发展水平指标体系。基于2014—2019年中国省级尺度交通运输物流仓储行业碳排放清单及统计年鉴数据,采用因子分析法对绿色物流发展指标降维形成8个影响因子,应用地理加权回归模型来解释中国物流行业碳排放强度驱动因素的省级区域差异及其时空演化规律。研究发现,在样本考察期内中国省域尺度物流业碳排放强度出现逐年弱化的聚集现象,并呈现出“西强东弱”空间分异的基本模式,因子重心表现出从东部向中部转移的趋势。其中物流粗放发展因子和物流装备因子对碳排放强度产生最强正向效应,而能源清洁化因子、货运结构调整因子和模式创新因子产生抑制效应。结合分析结果,立足各省资源禀赋及发展战略,提出中国绿色物流发展的政策建议。

The green development of China's logistics industry is a key area for the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.This article combines the connotation of green development in the logistics industry to study and construct a green logistics development level indicator system.Based on the carbon emissions inventory and statistical yearbook data of China's provinciallevel transportation,logistics,and warehousing industry from 2014 to 2019,factor analysis was used to reduce the dimensionality of green logistics development indicators to form 8 influencing factors.A geographic weighted regression model was applied to explain the provincial differences and spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the driving factors of carbon emissions intensity in China's logistics industry.The study found that during the sample investigation period,the carbon emission intensity of China's logistics industry at the provincial level showed an aggregation phenomenon of weakening year by year,and showed a basic spatial differentiation pattern of"strong in the west and weak in the east".The factor center of gravity showed a trend of shifting from the east to the central region.The factors of extensive logistics development and logistics equipment have the strongest positive effects on carbon emission intensity,while the factors of energy cleanliness,freight structure adjustment,and innovation have inhibitory effects.Based on the analysis results and the resource endowments and development strategies of each province,policy implications for the development of green logistics in China were proposed.