高校扩招以来我国高等教育入学机会省际不平等的变化趋势

The Trend of Inter-provincial Inequality of Enrollment Opportunities of Higher Education in China Since the Expansion of College Enrollment

基于1998-2021年我国高考分省录取数据,从高等教育总体、本科和一本等三个维度分析高校扩招政策实施24年间的省域高等教育入学机会与省际不平等的状况及其变化趋势。采用当年入学率测量省域高等教育入学机会,发现省域高等教育入学机会呈现明显的“模式化”特征,表现为低录取、较低录取、中等录取、较高录取和高录取等五个模式,且各模式省份的当年入学率均值均呈快速上升趋势。采用基尼系数和泰尔指数测量高等教育入学机会省际不平等,发现高等教育入学机会总体、本科和一本入学机会的省际不平等程度均较低,但近年来有扩大之势。因此,建议依据各省份的当年入学率精细化调整高等教育入学机会的区域倾斜政策,并重点改善本科和一本层次高等教育入学机会的省际不平等。

Based on the admission data of China's college entrance examination from 1998 to 2021,this paper analyzes the situation and trend of provincial higher education enrollment opportunities and inter-provincial inequality during the 24 years' implementation of college enrollment expansionpolicy from the three dimensions of higher education,undergraduate and elite.Then,using the annual enrollment rate to measure the admission opportunities of higher education in the province,it is found that the admission opportunities of higher education in the province show obvious “patterned” characteristics,which are manifested in five modes:the lowest admission mode,the lower admission mode,the medium admission mode,the higher admission mode and the highest admission mode.And the average enrollment rate is on a rapid upward trend.At last,Using the Gini coefficient and Theil index to measure the inter-provincial inequality of higher education admission opportunities,it is found that the inter-provincial inequality of higher education admission opportunities overall,undergraduate and elite college admission opportunities is low,but it has been expanding in recent years.Therefore,it is recommended to fine-tune the regional preferential policies for higher education admission opportunities according to the annual admission rate of each province,and focus on improving the inter-provincial inequality of admission opportunities for undergraduate and elite higher education.