新冠病毒感染疫情期间中国农产品进出口贸易韧性差异研究

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Resilience of China's Agricultural Trade

文章考察新冠疫情对中国农产品贸易的影响,发现中国农产品贸易受到国内疫情的抑制,这种抑制作用主要发生在农产品进口层面,农产品出口对疫情冲击表现出较强的韧性。同时,疫情对农产品贸易的影响极具异质性,地区异质性分析发现中部和西部地区的农产品贸易呈现出一定的韧性;与发达国家之间的农产品贸易受疫情影响相对较小;植物类农产品和烟酒食品等农产品贸易在面临疫情冲击时相对稳定。新冠疫情可通过疫情防控政策、增加不确定性以及冲击需求端渠道来抑制农产品进口。

This paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on China's agricultural trade and finds that China's agricultural trade is inhibited by domestic COVID-19 pandemic.This inhibition effect mainly exists in agricultural imports,while agricultural exports show strong resilience to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic.At the same time,the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural trade is highly heterogeneous.The analysis of regional heterogeneity reveals that agricultural trade in the central and western regions of China exhibits a certain degree of resilience;agricultural trade with the developed countries is relatively less affected by COVID-19 pandemic;trade in agricultural products such as plant agricultural products,tobacco,alcohol and food is relatively stable in the face of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic.COVID-19 pandemic can inhibit agricultural imports through the prevention and control policies of COVID-19 pandemic,the increase in uncertainty and the impact of demand side.