基于前期规划视角的城轨运营模式影响因素研究

Research on the Influencing Factors of Urban Rail Transit Operation Mode Based on the Perspective of Preliminary Planning

为了研究城市轨道交通规划设计阶段影响线路间贯通运营的主要因素,基于苏州轨道交通16号线起点站望亭站“Y”形贯通和同台换乘2种客流预测结果,运用理论分析和仿真计算相结合的方法,对2种方案在客流需求、系统兼容、服务水平、时空目标、工程代价、购车成本、运营效益和社会效益等8个方面进行对比研究。研究结果表明,贯通运营可以提高线路服务水平,使各设计年限客流量提高5.2万人/d、6.5万人/d和9.3万人/d,年票价收益增加2847万元、3559万元和5092万元,至机场旅行时间节省5~10 min,满足时空目标。另一方面,贯通运营会增加运营组织复杂度和工程投资,贯通接轨站建筑面积和投资分别增加约4079 m2和2900万元,各设计年限车辆购置费用分别增加约3.84亿元、4.48亿元和7.36亿元,年牵引成本分别增加约1836万元、3755万元和4958万元。

In order to study the main factors that affect through operation between lines in the planning and design stage of urban rail transit,based on the passenger flow prediction results of“Y-shaped”and same platform transfer of the Wangting Station,the start of Suzhou Metro Line 16,the combination of theoretical analysis and simulation calculation were used to compare and study the two schemes in eight aspects,including passenger flow demand,system compatibility,service level,spatiotemporal goals,engineering costs,vehicle purchase costs,operational benefits and social benefits.The research results indicate that“through operation”can improve the service level of the line,increase the passenger flow by 52000 people/d,65000 people/d and 93000 people/d for each design period,increase the annual fare revenue by 28.47 million yuan,35.59 million yuan and 50.92 million yuan,save 5~10 min traveling time to the airport,meet the spatiotemporal goal.On the other hand,“through operation”will increase the complexity of the operation organization and engineering investment,the construction area and investment of the through station increase by about 4079 m2 and 29 million yuan respectively,the vehicle purchase cost increase by about 384 million yuan,448 million yuan and 736 million yuan respectively for each design period,and the annual traction cost increase by about 18.36 million yuan,37.55 million yuan and 49.58 million yuan respectively.