考虑脱网风险的区域电-氢能源系统两阶段规划方法

Two-stage planning method for regional electricity-hydrogen energy system considering off-grid risk

区域电-氢能源系统(REHS)在新型电力系统的占比逐渐提高,但受诸多不确定因素的影响其可能发生脱网事故。为提升REHS供能可靠性,提出一种考虑脱网风险的REHS规划方法。首先,提出考虑运营阶段、季节类型和运行时段3种因素的脱网概率统计方法,基于风险量化方法计算脱网事故所造成的风险成本;然后,以系统全寿命周期总成本最小为优化目标,建立考虑脱网风险的REHS规划-运行两阶段模型,上层合理配置各设备容量,下层实现REHS在正常运行场景与发生脱网事故场景下的最优调度,从而从投资与运行两方面提升系统的经济性。通过算例仿真验证了所提规划方法能够降低REHS全寿命周期总成本,具有良好的经济效益。

The proportion of regional electricity-hydrogen energy system(REHS)is gradually increasing in the new power system.However,due to many uncertain factors,REHS may experience off-grid accidents.To enhance the reliability of the energy supply of REHS,a REHS planning method considering off-grid risks is proposed.A probability statistical method for off-grid considering three factors,including operation stage,season type and operating period,is proposed.The risk cost caused by off-grid accidents is calculated based on the risk quantification method.A two-stage model of REHS planning and operation considering off-grid risks is established to optimize the total cost of the system entire life cycle.The upper level con⁃figures the reasonable capacity of each device,while the lower level achieves the optimal scheduling of REHS in normal operating scenarios and off-grid accident scenarios,thus improving the system economy from both investment and operation aspects.The case study verifies that the proposed planning method can reduce the total life cycle cost of REHS and has good economic benefits.