新时代我国系统性风险的形成机理与防范对策

The Formation Mechanism and Countermeasures of Systemic Risks in China in the New Era

系统性风险是由系统内部相互联系与作用的风险组合而成的风险综合体,具有非线性与涌现性、连锁性与耦合性、跨界性与极端性等特征。新时代是我国现代化进程加快推进的关键期,也是风险挑战日益凸显期。现代化增加了孕灾环境的敏感性、增加了致灾因子间的联动性与承灾体的脆弱性,为各类风险滋生与蔓延、连锁与联动以及耦合演化为系统性风险提供了客观条件。针对当前我国面临的系统性政治风险、公共安全、经济金融风险、创新链产业链供应链风险,需要坚持系统思维,着力加强党中央对防范系统性风险工作的集中统一领导、贯彻落实总体国家安全观、坚持底线思维、建立大安全大应急框架、强化数智赋能系统性风险防范,打好防范系统性风险组合拳。

Systematic risk is a risk complex formed by the combination of risks that are interconnected and interacted within the system.It has the characteristics of nonlinearity and emergence,linkage and coupling,border-crossing and extremism,and poses a major threat to the smooth promotion of the new journey of Chinese path to modernization.The new era is a critical period for China to speed up modernization,and also a period of increasing prominent risks and challenges.Modernization has enhanced the sensitivity of the disaster prone environment,increased the linkages among disaster-causing factors,and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing entities,providing objective conditions for the breeding and spreading,linkage and coupling of various risks,as well as their evolution into systemic risks.To address the current systemic political risks,public safety risks,economic and financial risks,and risks of innovation,industrial and supply chains faced by China,it is necessary to adhere to systematic thinking.Focus should be on strengthening the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee in preventing systemic risks,carrying out the holistic approach to national security,adhering to the worst-case scenario thinking principle,establishing a strategic framework for major security and emergency management,strengthening the prevention of systemic risks through digital intelligence empowerment,so as to well prevent systemic risks by a series of policies like combination punches.