碳排放权交易与碳泄漏:促进抑或遏制?

Emission Trading and Carbon Leakage:Promoting or Containment?

党的二十大报告提出,“实现碳达峰碳中和是一场广泛而深刻的经济社会系统性变革”,其核心是健全碳排放权市场交易制度。本文通过构建新古典一般均衡模型,理论推导与实证检验了碳排放权交易政策的效果,研究结果表明:该政策显著降低了试点地区的碳排放,且东部试点遏制了向非试点的碳泄漏,但中部、西部试点却促进了向非试点的碳泄漏。进一步分析导致政策效果差异的原因发现,控排地区的综合交易效率高是实现碳排放内部化的必要条件;跨区域交通运输效率的提高将促使碳排放向非控排地区泄漏,而清洁生产研发投入的提高将遏制碳排放向非控排地区泄漏。得出的政策启示:借鉴东部地区的成功经验与城市圈辐射效应,建立跨区域的协同减排机制,助力全国统一碳排放权交易市场的进一步完善,实现对资源的优化配置,推动中国经济高质量发展。

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes that“achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is a broad and profound economic and social systemic reform”.The key is to improve the carbon emission trading system.By constructing an emerging neoclassical general equilibrium model,the policy effects of carbon emissions trading were theoretically derived and empirically investigated.The results showed that the emission trading pilot significantly reduced carbon emission in the pilot regions,however,the eastern pilot region curbed carbon leakage,the central and western pilot regions promoted carbon leakage.Further analysis revealed that a sufficiently high comprehensive trading efficiency is a necessary condition for achieving internalization of carbon emissions;the improvement of cross regional transportation efficiency will promote the leakage of carbon emission to non-controlled emission areas,while the increase in investment in clean production research and development will curb the leakage of carbon emissions to non-controlled emission areas.Policy insights are:learning from the successful experience in eastern China and the radiation effect of urban circle,establishing a cross-regional collaborative emission reduction mechanism,and accelerating the further improvement of the national carbon emission trading market,so as to realize the optimal allocation of resources and help China's high-quality economic development.