省级疾病预防控制中心短视频抖音传播效果分析

Analysis on spread effect of short videos released by Provincial Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

目的 通过对抖音平台数据挖掘,基于详尽可能模型(Elaboration Likelihood Model, ELM)分析省级疾病预防控制中心(Center for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC)短视频影响因素及传播效果,以期为CDC借助短视频开展服务提供参考。方法 以15个省级CDC的2021年全部短视频数据为调查对象,通过Python程序抓取抖音账号的基本数据、描述传播特征、基于ELM模型设置10个维度,采用普通最小二乘法(Ordinary Least Squares, OLS)回归分析进行假设检验。结果 15个省级疾控中心抖音号共纳入1277条视频,其在粉丝数(0.06万~13万)、点赞数(0.09万~20.04万)、转发数(0.01万~2.05万)、评论数(0~0.86万)、抖音传播力指数(Douyin Communication Index, DCI)(595~1016.28)均存在差距;以中心路径和边缘路径作为ELM模型评价指标,在中心路径中,知识类、新闻类对传播效果有显著作用,其他类及低质量视频有显著负向影响;从边缘路径看,现场直播的方式、时长为121~180 s、“语音+字幕”的播报形式、庄严的背景音乐、感叹句式标题的短视频对传播效果具有正向影响,不带“#”话题的视频内容有负向影响;以及可能存在其他调节变量。结论 CDC应多以传播疾病预防知识、传递新闻信息为主;更加注重内容质量的输出与用户需求的互动;参考现场直播拍摄方式、“语音+字幕”、庄严的背景音乐、感叹句式标题,控制时长,提升传播效果和影响力。

Objective To analyze the dissemination effects and influencing factors of short videos released on TikTok plaform by provincial Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDCs)based on ELM model,and to provide reference for improving short videos spread effect.MethodsThe basic data of all short videos released on TikTok platform by 15 provincial CDCs in 2021 were captured by Python program.The dissemination characteristics were described,10 dimensions were set up based on ELM model,and hypothesis testing was carried out by using ordinary least squares(OLS)regression analysis.Results A total of 1277 videos were included from 15 provincial CDCs TikTok platform.There had big gaps in the number of followers(600-130000),the number of likes(900-200400),the number of retweets(100-20500),the number of comments(0-8600),and the DCI(595-1016.28).In the center path of ELM evaluation model,knowledge and news showed significant effect on the spread effect,and other categories and low-quality videos showed significant negative effect.In the edge path,the way of live broadcasting,the length of 121-180 seconds,the broadcasting form of"voice+subtitle",the solemn background music,and short videos with exclamatory titles showed positive effect on the spread effect,while video content without"#"showed negative effect.There maybe have other moderating variables.Conclusion Provincial CDCs should focus on disseminating knowledge of disease prevention and news information.Content quality and interaction with users'needs,live broadcast filming method,"voice+subtitle",solemn background music,exclamatory captions and time control should be paid more attention to enhance the dissemination effect and influence.