碳值控制下产业环境、要素流动对中国制造业转型升级的驱动效应

Driving Effects of Industrial Environment and Factor Mobility on the Transformation and Upgrading of Chinese Manufacturing Industry Under Carbon Value Control

针对产业转型升级动力效应领域定量化探究产业环境、要素流动、技术创新等维度的影响研究较少的现状,从产业环境、要素流动和产业转型升级三大维度对影响我国制造业转型升级效率的传导机制开展定量研究。基于要素流动的视角,将技术创新因子纳入要素流动范畴,并根据劳动生产率和资本密集度与产业要素优化效率关系,将制造业转型升级分解为创新性转型和要素性转型两种类型,利用我国30个省份2014—2016年、2018—2019年的省级面板数据,运用主成分分析法进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)产业环境优化能显著促进制造业转型升级,其中产业结构升级的驱动效应最大,该指数每增加1%则制造业转型升级效率提高6.80~6.94,产业吸引力、碳值控制、政府创新激励次之,而劳动力成本上升和环境规制呈现抑制效应;同时产业结构升级在两种分解效应中均为正向驱动作用,但政府政策调控对制造业创新性转型有激励作用而对要素性转型有阻碍作用。(2)要素流动能显著直接促进制造业转型升级并发挥部分中介效能,驱动效果表现为“技术>资本>劳动力”,中介能力依次为“资本>技术>劳动力”。(3)技术、资本、劳动力3种主要要素的跨区域流动都能促进制造业转型升级,要素流入每增加1%则制造业转型升级效率分别提高0.56、0.03、0.01~0.02,但在产业内流通或扩散都表现为阻碍作用,要素流通每增加1%则制造业转型升级效率分别下降-0.12~-0.11、-0.10、-0.12~-0.11,且其分解驱动效应也有高度相似性。据此,分别从形成合理的政府政策规制体系、合理诱导要素的战略流向、充分利用要素的产业升级价值等方面提出相关对策建议。

In the context of a limited quantitative exploration in the field of driving effects on industrial transformation and upgrading,particularly in understanding the impacts of dimensions such as industrial environment,factor mobility,and technological innovation,encompassing three major dimensions of industrial environment,factor mobility,and industrial transformation and upgrading,this paper conducts quantitative research on the transmission mechanisms influencing the efficiency of Chinese manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading.From the standpoint of factor mobility,the paper integrates technological innovation factors into the scope of factor flow,according to the relationship between labor productivity,capital intensity,and the optimization eficiency of industrial factor,divides the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry is into two types:innovative transformation and factorbased transformation,conducts empirical analysis by using the panel data from 30 Chinese provinces of the years 2014-2016 and 2018-2019,and the principal component analysis.The results reveal:(1)Optimizing the industrial environment significantly promotes the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,with the most substantial driving effect attributed to industrial structure upgrading,for each 1%increase in the industrial structure upgrading index,the eficiency of the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry increases by 6.80 to 6.94,and the industrial attractiveness,carbon value control,and government innovation incentives follow,while rising labor costs and environmental regulations exhibit inhibitory effects.Furthermore,industrial structure upgrading has a positive driving effect in both types of decomposition effects,but government policy regulation encourages innovative transformation in manufacturing while hindering factor-based transformation.(2)Factor mobility significantly and directly promotes the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and serves as a partial intermediary,the driving effect is observed in the order of"technology>capital>labor,"while the intermediary capabilities follow the order of"capital>technology>labor."(3)The cross-regional flow of technology,capital and labor force can promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,for each 1% increase in the factor inflow,the efficiency of the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry will increase by 0.56,0.03,0.01~0.02,respectively.However,within-industry circulation or diffusion of factors demonstrates inhibitory effects,for each 1% increase in factor circulation,the efficiency of the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry decreases by-0.12 to-0.11,-0.10,-0.12 to-0.11,respectively,and their decomposition driving effects also exhibit a high degree of similarity.Based on these findings,some policy recommendations are offerd in areas such as the establishment of a rational government policy regulatory system,strategic guidance of factor flows,and maximizing the value of factors in industrial upgrading.