京津冀区域中长期能源形态演化路径研究

Study on the Long-term Evolution Pathway of Energy System in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

京津冀地区作为我国重要的城市群之一,能源消耗量、碳排放量大,研究其实现碳达峰碳中和路径推进举措,对实现高质量的区域协同发展至关重要。本文首先构建了京津冀地区长期能源替代规划模型,设置基准情景和加速情景,对2020~2060年京津冀地区能源发展路径进行分析。其次基于京津冀区域中长期能源演化路径,对京津冀区域电力发展情况进行整体分析,综合考虑供应侧和需求侧资源,得出满足规划要求的能源电力供应结果。结果表明,京津冀地区能源消费总量和终端能源消费总量2040年前达峰,碳排放2030年前达峰,北京和天津能源消费总量将率先于2035年前后达峰,河北能源消费总量持续增长,将于2039年左右达峰。

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,as a key strategic development area in China,has large energy consumption and carbon emissions,and studying the promotion measures of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is crucial to achieving high-quality regional coordinated development.In this paper,a long-term energy alternative planning system model considering the characteristics of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is constructed,and the benchmark scenario and acceleration scenario are set to analyze the energy development path of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Based on the long-term energy evolution path in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the overall analysis of the power development in the region is carried out by comprehensively considering the supply-side and demand-side resources.The results show that the total energy consumption and terminal energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will peak around 2040,carbon emissions will peak before 2030.The total energy consumption of Beijing and Tianjin will peak around 2035,and the total energy consumption of Hebei will continue to grow and will peak around 2039.