2023年10月全球新型冠状病毒感染疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in October 2023

目的评估2023年10月新型冠状病毒感染(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况以及对我国的输入风险。方法根据世界卫生组织公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合全球COVID-19入境政策分析,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、各大洲及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。结果与2023年9月相比,全球月新增确诊病例下降了6.17%,月新增死亡病例下降了30.72%,全球月新增确诊病例前10位国家中,俄罗斯、新加坡、塞尔维亚、捷克和新西兰为全球重点关注国家;各大洲月新增确诊病例前3位国家中,菲律宾为亚洲一般关注国家,布隆迪和斯威士兰为非洲一般关注国家。俄罗斯、印度和阿富汗是周边十四国特别关注国家。结论全球每日新增确诊病例和新增死亡病例10月均呈下降趋势,多数国家疫情稳定。对于重点国家要持续加强疫情监测,同相关机构建立沟通机制,互通有无,及时预警。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in October 2023 and the risk of importation.Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by World Health Organization,combined with the travel restrictions published by Sherpa,an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview,a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in each continent and key countries,as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and travel requirements in 14 neighboring countries.Results Compared with the previous month,the number of confirmed cases and deaths respectively decreased by 6.17%and 30.72%globally in October 2023.Russia,Singapore,Serbia,Czech,and New Zealand are the countries of global concern.Close attention should be paid to Philippines in Asia,and Burundi and Eswatini in Africa.Special concern should be paid to Russia,India,and Afghanistan among the 14 land-boarding countries.Conclusion The global daily new confirmed cases and deaths showed a downward trend in October,and the epidemic situation in most countries was stable.It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global focus and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.