基于STIPRAT评估模型的金砖五国碳排放影响因素分析

Analysis of Carbon Emission Influence Factors in BRICS Countries Based on STIPRAT Evaluation Model

金砖五国作为当前世界新型经济体合作组织的代表,在全球经济发展中发挥着重要作用。随着经济快速发展,碳排放量引起组织成员国高度重视。对金砖五国经济、能源消费及碳排放情况进行分析,表明随着组织成员国经济可持续发展,金砖五国在全球经济占比不断提高,能源消费总量呈现增长态势,但受各国资源禀赋情况影响,用能结构各有差异,碳排放水平也有差别,碳排放总量占比总体呈现增加趋势。基于散点图分析,证明除俄罗斯外,其他4个组织成员国的经济与碳排放量的相互关系基本符合库兹涅茨“倒U字形曲线”假说。基于STIPRAT评估模型,通过对金砖五国经济、人口、电力能源消费占比及碳排放等方面数据整理分析,研究论证各成员国碳排放影响因素对碳排放的影响程度。线性回归模型数据表明除俄罗斯外,其他4个组织成员国线性回归模型数据拟合优度(R-squared,R~2)较高,拟合可信度高。根据模型拟合参数,结合不同影响因素对碳排放量的影响系数,提出促进各国碳达峰的相关措施建议。

The BRICS countries,as the representatives of the current World New Economic Cooperation Organization,play an important role in global economic development.With the rapid development of economy,its carbon emissions also need to attract the attention of the member countries of the organization.It analysizes energy consumption and carbon emissions of BRICS economies.It shows that with the sustainable economic development of the member countries of the organization,the proportion of BRICS countries in the global economy has been increasing,and the total energy consumption has shown an increasing trend.However,due to the influence of the resource endowments of each country,the energy consumption structure is different,and the carbon emission level is also different.The proportion of the total amount of carbon emissions is generally showing an increasing trend.Based on the scatter plot analysis,it is proved that the relationship between the economy and carbon emissions of the other four member countries except Russia basically conforms to Kuznets' s “inverted U-shaped curve” hypothesis.Based on the STIPRAT evaluation model,through sorting and analyzing the data of economy,population,proportion of power and energy consumption and carbon emissions of the BRICS countries,it researches and demonstrates the impact of carbon emission influencing factors of each member country on carbon emissions.The linear regression model data shows that except Russia,the goodness of fit(R-squared,R~2) of the linear regression model data of the other four organization member countries is high,and the fitting reliability is high.According to the model fitting parameters,combined with the influence coefficients of different influencing factors on carbon emissions,the relevant measures and suggestions promote carbon peaking are proposed.