中俄边境地区经济联系网络结构演变研究

Evolution of economic linkage network structure in China-Russia Border Regions

在国际形势日趋复杂的背景下,中俄边境地区的经济合作面临新的发展机遇。本文以中国东北9个中俄边境城市与俄罗斯远东11个首府城市为研究对象,采用修正引力模型,构建中俄城市经济联系有向加权网络,分析2006—2019年经济联系演变格局及网络结构,并进一步抽象出网络结构图谱判定其演变质量。结果表明:①中俄城市间的经济联系趋于紧密,其中中方边境城市的对外引力显著提高,而俄远东城市的辐射作用逐渐减弱,经济联系网络呈现近邻效应与等级效应交织共生的空间态势。②中国东北边境城市的结网能力在13 a间显著增强,基本形成以佳木斯、延吉和牡丹江为核心节点的辐射状结构;远东中心城市哈巴罗夫斯克、符拉迪沃斯托克的虹吸效应使得网络传输流向与流量越来越依赖高首位度节点的作用。③2006—2013年,中俄城市联系网络的层级结构增强而匹配结构减弱,网络结构整体表现为依赖性和锁定性。2013—2019年,网络结构由封闭立体化趋向开放扁平化,网络结构的灵活性与复杂性显著提高。与此同时,13 a间核心社团在显著的溢出效应下促进了与其他功能社团的联动发展。④中俄城市经济联系网络结构图谱呈现典型的异配性轴辐式结构。2006—2013年,网络系统的“核心–边缘”结构愈发明显,核心节点城市的控制力和传输力最强;2013—2019年,城市网络结构跃迁到新的演变状态,进入核心突出、边缘扁平的协同发展态势。

s the network structural mode to determine the evolution quality.The results show that:1)The economic linkage between Chinese and Russian cities tends to be closer,in which the attraction of Chinese border cities is significantly improved,while the radiation ef-fect of Russian Far East cities is gradually weakened.The evolution pattern of the economic linkage network has both path dependence and path creation,and the spatial situation of neighborhood effect and hierarchical effect interweaves and coexists.2)The networking capacity of the border cities in Northeast China increased significantly in the past 13 years,forming a radial structure with Jiamusi,Yanji and Mudanjiang as the core nodes.The siphon effect of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok made the network flow direction and flow rate more and more dependent on the role of high-priority nodes.3)From 2006 to 2013,the hierarchy of network im-proved but the matching weakened,and the network structural showed dependence and lock-in.From 2013 to 2019,the network structure changed from stereoscopic to flat,from closed to open,and the flexibility and com-plexity of network structure showed significant improvement.At the same time,the core community has pro-moted the collaborative development with other functional communities under the significant spillover effect.4)The structural mode of economic linkage network showed a typical heteromatching hub-spoke structure.From 2006 to 2013,the"core-edge"structure of the network system became more and more obvious,and the core cities had the strongest control and transmission power;From 2013 to 2019,the network structure transitioned to a new state of evolution,and the network system entered a coordinated development trend with core-prominent and edge-flat.