沿海城市经济韧性演化特征及影响机理——以连云港市为例

Evolution characteristics and influence mechanism of economic resilience in coastal cities:A case study of Lianyungang

通过构建沿海城市经济韧性分析框架,采用经济韧性测度模型和Esteban-Marquillas拓展模型,以连云港为案例,分析了1996—2020年沿海城市经济韧性特征及影响机理。发现:①沿海城市宏观经济韧性呈减弱–增强–减弱的变化过程,第二产业主导着连云港市经济韧性的发展演化。②沿海城市传统路径行业韧性弱于新兴路径,产业结构素质、竞争力、资源配置等要素作用强度变化具有动态阶段性。沿海城市经济韧性的演化受制于新兴路径行业发展,新兴路径行业并不一定是高新技术产业,而是与当地区情况相适应的产业。③沿海城市企业韧性有减弱之势,新兴路径行业的企业韧性强于传统路径行业。新兴路径行业和传统路径的化工产业新企业表现出对港口、高新区等特定空间区位的路径依赖,显示出港口区位对企业存活具有积极影响。推动产业向港口、开发区(高新区)集聚是提升沿海城市经济韧性的关键路径。

With the increase of uncertainty in the development environment at home and abroad,coastal cities are more exposed to various risk disturbances than other regions,and the evolution process of economic resili-ence is more complicated,however,there is a lack of coupling analysis from multiple scales such as regions,industries,and enterprises.Therefore,scientifically revealing the evolution characteristics and influence mech-anism of economic resilience of coastal cities is an important support for promoting the scientific development of coastal cities and consolidating the leading position in the opening up of eastern coastal areas.By construct-ing the economic resilience analysis framework of coastal cities,taking Lianyungang as a case,the paper ana-lyzes the economic resilience characteristics and influence mechanism of coastal cities with the economic resi-lience measurement model and the Esteban-Marquillas extended model from 1996 to 2020.The results show that:1)The macro-economic resilience of coastal cities showed a periodic change of weakening-strengthening-weakening,and the secondary industry dominated the development of Lianyungang's economic resilience.2)The resilience of traditional path industry in coastal cities was weaker than that of emerging path industry,and the strength of industrial mix effect,competitive advantage effect and allocation effect had a has a dynam-ic and staged feature.The evolution of the economic resilience of coastal cities was determined by the develop-ment of emerging industries.Emerging industries were not necessarily high-tech industries,but adapted to loc-al conditions.3)The resilience of enterprises in coastal cities tended to weaken,and the resilience of enter-prises in emerging industries was stronger than that in traditional industries.The new enterprises of new path industries and chemical industry of the traditional path showed path dependence on specific spatial locations such as ports and high-tech zones,which indicated port location had a positive impact on enterprise survival.Therefore,guiding the agglomeration of industries in ports and development zones(high-tech zones)was the key path to improving the economic resilience of coastal cities.