苏州市土地利用及生境质量变化预测

Prediction of Changes in Land Use and Habitat Quality in Suzhou

基于2010年、2015年和2020年苏州市3期土地利用数据,结合社会经济因素,使用PLUS模型预测2025年与2030年苏州市土地利用类型的变化,并使用InVEST模型分别计算2015年、2020年、2025年和2030年苏州市的生境质量。结果表明,与2020年相比,2030年苏州市水域面积减少最多,占比从35.96%降低至32.87%;建设用地面积增加最多,占比从28.32%增加至31.60%。生境质量从空间分布上看,太湖水域、长江水域生境质量最好,沿岸次之,而城市中心地区相对较差;从时间分布上看,2030年相比于2015年,整体生境质量指数从0.560下降至0.528,呈下降趋势。

Based on the land use data in Suzhou in 2010,2015 and 2020,combined with socio-economic factors,PLUS model was used to predict the changes of land use types in Suzhou in 2025 and 2030,and InVEST model was used to calculate the habitat quality in Suzhou in 2015,2020,2025 and 2030,respectively.The results showed that compared with 2020,the water area in Suzhou would decrease the most in 2030,from 35.96%to 32.87%,while the construction land area would increase the most,from 28.32%to 31.60%.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the habitat quality was the best in Taihu and Yangtze River,the second in coastal areas,and relatively poor in urban center areas.From the perspective of time distribution,compared with 2015,the overall habitat quality index in 2030 would decrease from 0.560 to 0.528,showing a downward trend.