高等教育普及对全球竞争力的非线性影响研究——来自跨国面板数据的门槛模型分析

Research on the Nonlinear Impact of Higher Education Universalization on Global Competitiveness:Threshold Model Analysis from Transnational Panel Data

普及是全球高等教育的发展趋势,高等教育普及在主要发达国家已经实现,在其经济社会发展中发挥了重要作用。利用跨国面板数据建立线性模型、门槛模型,检验高等教育毛入学率的提高对全球竞争力的影响发现:高等教育毛入学率与全球竞争力之间存在显著的正相关关系;高等教育毛入学率对全球竞争力的影响具有门槛效应,在跨越人均GDP的门槛值后,对全球竞争力的作用进一步增强;提高研发支出占GDP的比重能够显著促进全球竞争力的提升;随着人均GDP的提高,中国高等教育毛入学率将对全球竞争力释放出更大积极作用。因此,我国应进一步在促进高等教育入学机会公平、提高高等教育质量、加大研发投入、推进政产学研用全方位协同育人新机制建立、保持经济高质量发展等方面采取有力措施,以不断增强发展的竞争力和可持续性。

Universalization is a global trend in the development of higher education,which has been achieved in major developed countries and has played an important role in their economic and social development.This paper uses cross-border panel data to establish linear models and threshold models,and tests the impact of increasing higher education gross enrollment rate on global competitiveness.It is found that there is a significant positive correlation between higher education gross enrollment rate and global competitiveness;The impact of higher education gross enrollment rate on global competitiveness has a threshold effect,and after crossing the threshold of per capita GDP,its impact on global competitiveness further strengthens;Increasing the proportion of research and development expenditure to GDP can significantly promote the improvement of global competitiveness;With the increase of per capita GDP,China′s gross enrollment rate in higher education will have a greater positive impact on global competitiveness.Therefore,effective measures should be taken to promote fair access to higher education,improve the quality of higher education,increase research and development investment,promote the establishment of a new mechanism for comprehensive collaborative education of government,industry,academia,research and application,and maintain high-quality economic development,so as to continuously enhance the competitiveness and sustainability of China′s development.