共建“一带一路”与互联互通深化——基于沿线国家间的视角

The Joint Construction of the Belt and Road Initiative and Deepening Interconnection:Based on the Perspective of Interconnections among Countries along the Route

推动共建“一带一路”高质量发展要求要持续深化互联互通,与以往研究主要关注中国与沿线国家间联通不同的是,本文从沿线国家之间联通的更宽视野为共建“一带一路”倡议下互联互通深化提供了典型事实和经验证据。本文结合复杂网络分析和双重差分法全面有效评析了共建“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家之间以“五通”为主要内容互联互通的影响。研究发现:(1)共建“一带一路”倡议推动了沿线国家之间全方位、多层次、复合型互联互通网络的构建,具体表现为2014年倡议实施后“五通”网络规模持续扩大、网络密度不断提高、节点联系更加紧密,并且沿线国家联通网络中的中国“桥梁”作用明显。(2)因果效应评估表明,共建“一带一路”倡议显著增强了沿线国家之间互联互通的程度,这一结论在考虑识别假设条件以及一系列稳健性检验后依然可靠。(3)共建“一带一路”倡议的互联互通效应具有异质性,体现为海上丝绸之路国家之间相较于陆上丝绸之路国家之间,除民心相通以外的其他联通效应均更加突出;收入差距较大的国家之间,政策沟通、资金融通效应更突出,而收入差距较小的国家之间,设施联通、贸易畅通、民心相通的效应更突出;与中国综合距离临近国家之间相较于非临近国家之间,除政策沟通以外的其他联通效应均更加突出。本文研究能够为共建“一带一路”高质量发展目标下互联互通建设提供一定的政策参考。

Promoting the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative necessitates a continual enhancement of connectivity.Unlike prior research that predominantly concentrated on the connectivity between China and the countries along the Belt and Road,this article provides stylized facts and empirical evidence on a broader perspective of the connectivities among the countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative.This article provides a comprehensive and effective analysis of the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the connectivities among countries along the route.It specifically focuses on the"five connectivities"and utilizes complex network analysis and the differencein-differences estimation to evaluate the effects.The main findings are as follows:(1)The joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative has promoted the establishment of all-dimensional,multitiered and composite connectivity networks among countries along the route.Specifically,since the implementation of the initiative in 2014,the size of the"five connectivities"has continuously expanded,network density has consistently improved,and node connections have become closer.China has played a significant role as a"bridge"in the interconnected network among countries along the route.(2)Causal effect evaluations indicate that the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly enhanced the level of interconnectivity among countries along the route.This result holds true after considering a set of identification assumption conditions and a series of robustness tests.(3)The interconnectivity effects of the Belt and Road Initiative exhibit heterogeneity,with a greater emphasis on connectivity effects beyond people-to-people bonds among countries along the Maritime Silk Road compared to those along the Land Silk Road Economic Belt.Countries with significant income disparities show more prominent effects in terms of policy coordination and financial integration,while countries with smaller income disparities highlight effects related to infrastructure connectivity,unimpeded trade,and people-to-people bonds.Furthermore,there is a more pronounced impact of connectivity,excluding policy coordination,among countries that are comprehensively closer to China than those that are not.This study provides valuable policy insights for the highquality development of interconnectivity within the Belt and Road Initiative.