地震紧急预警信息设计与公众避险行为倾向:来自多模态情景模拟实验的发现

Earthquake Imminent Warning Message Design and Citizens'Intended Protective Action:Evidence from Survey Experiment with Multi-modal Scenarios

一些国家和地区已尝试通过手机终端发布地震预警,并采用了不同模式的信息设计,然而何种信息设计更适合中国公众尚缺少研究支撑,且多数研究关注预警文本而对文本之外的多模态要素关注较少。本文采用调查实验方法来探讨预警信息内容(包括行动指示与可用行动时间)和模态(包括图像与语音)两方面设计对公众避险行为倾向的影响。实证研究结果表明:仅就预警信息内容而言,突出行动指示或可用行动时间对公众避险行为倾向都没有显著影响;在信息模态方面,图像模态突出行动指示或可用行动时间的影响均不显著,语音模态突出行动指示也没有显著影响,但语音模态突出可用行动时间显著负向影响公众避险行为倾向,也不利于公众保持冷静,这可能与地震预警的时间紧迫性相关。本文揭示了视觉、语音等多模态要素在预警信息中发挥的作用,展示了预警信息内容与模态相结合可能产生的不同预警效果,可为未来地震预警信息设计研究与实务提供借鉴。

The design of earthquake imminent warning messages on mobile phones varies across countries and regions.However,empirical research on appropriate message design in the Chinese context remains limited,and previous studies have focused more on text-based rather than multimodal warning messages.In this paper,we employ a survey experiment to investigate the effects of imminent warning message content(including instructions of self-protective actions and available response time)as well as message modality(including visual and verbal cues)on citizens’intended protective action.Our results suggest that imminent warning messages highlighting instructions of self-protective actions or available response time have no significant effects on citizens’intended self-protective actions.Delivering self-protective actions or available response time through image has no significant effect on citizens’intended actions.Highlighting self-protective actions in the modality of voice also has no significant effect.Yet,highlighting leading time through voice significantly decreases citizen’s intended protective action and calmness,which may be attributed to the urgency of earthquake imminent warning.The study extends existing research on imminent earthquake warning message design by exploring multimodality and its effects on citizens’adoption of intended protective actions.