2010~2020年中国农村老年人口的工作预期寿命及其地区差异

The Working Life Expectancy of the Older Population in Rural China and Its Regional Differences from 2010 to 2020

基于2010年以来的全国人口普查和人口抽样调查数据,对中国农村老年人口的工作预期寿命及其变动趋势和地区差异进行了系统分析。研究结果表明,2010年以来,农村老年人口劳动参与水平持续下降,工作预期寿命稳步缩短,非工作预期寿命延长;这些变化存在显著的性别和地区差异,男性和农业发达、人口净流出地区的农村老年人需要面对工作预期寿命更长而晚年闲暇时长更短的双重劣势;各地区农村老年人口工作余寿在余寿中的拓展模式可以分为“安逸型”“劳逸结合型”“高负担型”“低负担型”“限制型”5种类型,所属类型与老年人的生活水平、劳动意愿、劳动能力和劳动条件紧密相关。政府和社会在为农村老年劳动者赋能的同时,应该为其提供设计合理、保障有力的经济安全网。

Based on the data from the population censuses and the 1%population sampling survey,this paper analyzes the trend of working life expectancy and its regional differences of the rural older population in China from 2010 to 2020.The results indicate that the proportion of working people among the rural older population has been declining since 2010,and their working life expectancy has decreased steadily while their non-working life expectancy has increased.The study also reveals significant gender and regional disparities in the working life expectancy of the rural older population:older males,and those residing in agriculturally developed and population-outflowing areas have a longer working life expectancy and less leisure time in their later lives.There are five typical patterns of working life expectancy extension for the rural older population,which are closely linked to the living standards,willingness to work,labor capacity,and working environment of the older population in the region.The research serves as an inspiration for authorities and society to empower rural older workers while providing them with a well-designed and powerful economic safety net.