传统人口学在当代中国发展之局限与未来展望

The Limitations and Future Prospects of Formal Demography in Contemporary China

随着中国社会经济的发展和转型,中国人口变迁凸显出种种独特的文化个性和强烈的时代特征,许多传统人口学的概念、指标、理论都难以精准地分析和诠释中国人口发展的现实。传统人口学的局限性主要表现为部分指标的时代性明显不足以及尚未有效本土化,人口老龄化、人口迁移流动和家庭研究领域的指标均为此类局限性的典型代表。中国式现代化和快速的人口转变为人口学的创新发展提供了丰富的现实场景,当代中国人口学未来的发展路径应该是在继承传统人口学发展成果的基础上,结合新时代的新特征以延续人口学的长期发展轨迹,同时遵循时代性、本土化、拓展性和国际化的理念,对传统人口学指标体系和理论框架进行改良或创新,不断推动中国人口学自主知识体系的建构,为世界人口学的发展贡献中国智慧。

With the socioeconomic development and transformation,China's demographic changes have showed various unique cultural characteristics and strong contemporary features.Many concepts,indicators and theories in formal demography can hardly be used to accurately analyze and interpret China's population development.The main problems lie in the inadequate temporal relevance of some demographic analytical indicators and their lack of effective localization.These indicators include those in the fields of population ageing,population migration,and family studies.The Chinese path of modernization and rapid demographic transition has provided rich empirical scenarios for the innovative developments in demography.The future development of Chinese demography should be based on the inheritance of the formal demography achievement and the incorporation of the new features in the new era.Meanwhile,it should also follow the principles of topicality,localization,expansion and internationalization to innovate or reconstruct the formal demographic index system and theoretical frameworks,continuously promote the establishment of an autonomous knowledge system in Chinese demography and contribute Chinese wisdom to the development of demography worldwide.