中国人口省际终身迁移的时期-队列分析

Period and Cohort Analysis of Inter-provincial Lifetime Migration in China

出生地信息是人口迁移研究中的重要信息之一,可用于判断终身迁移人口。利用2000年、2010年和2020年全国人口普查数据,以时期-队列和省际差异为分析视角,从迁入与迁出两方面,描述了全国及各省份人口省际终身迁移的宏观水平、流向以及年龄模式的现状及变化。研究发现,终身迁移是历史时期移民运动与当前人口迁移流动综合作用的产物,带有的历史印记会被当代趋势逐渐湮没,存在明显的省际差异;终身迁移的空间分布在稳定中呈现出迁出地扩散和迁入地在集聚中扩散的特点;中国人口仍相对凝固;队列分析表明终身迁移具有时间累积效应,且与生命事件密切关联。出生地信息具有独特的有别于其他口径的研究视角,应加强迁移流空间扩散趋势、双向迁移流的存在条件与因果机制等研究。

Birthplace information is crucial for migration studies,enabling identification of lifetime migrants.Using data from 2000,2010,and 2020 censuses,this research depicts inter-provincial lifetime migration in China,outlines national-and provincial-level migration trends,directions,and age patterns.The results suggest that lifetime migration reflects historical and contemporary migration,while the historical marks gradually fade.Its spatial distribution shows the characteristics of diffusion for the places of origin and diffusion-and-concentration for the destinations,while China's population remains relatively static.Cohort analysis highlights that lifetime migration has a cumulative effect over time and is closely associated with life events.The study concludes that birthplace information has a unique research perspective distinct from others,and calls for further research on the conditions and causal mechanisms of bidirectional migration flows.