基于组合赋权-云模型的民航安保风险评估

Risk Assessment of Civil Aviation Security Based on Combination Weighting-Cloud Model

为应对日趋严峻的空防形势,弥补空中警力资源缺口,文章以2017年—2021年发生的3351起民航安保事件为基础,构建基于组合赋权-云模型的民航安保风险评估模型。首先,分析、整理各类民航安保事件的风险影响因素,建立民航安保风险指标体系;其次,运用博弈论算法对G1法确定的主观权重和改进CRITIC法确定的客观权重进行组合赋权优化,并结合云模型理论完成民航安保风险评估模型的构建;最后,通过空警部门提供的风险航班数据开展模型的可靠性验证,证明了该民航安保风险评估模型的实战效果,为开创和完善空警勤务的动态化派遣模式提供了重要思路。

In response to the increasingly severe situation of air defense and the shortage of air police resources,this paper constructs a risk assessment model of civil aviation security based on the combination weighting-cloud model on the basis of 3351 civil aviation security incidents that occurred from 2017 to 2021.This paper analyzes and sorts out the risk factors of various civil aviation security incidents,establishes a risk index system for civil aviation security,optimizes the subjective weights determined by the G1 method and the objective weights determined by the improved CRITIC method by using game theory algorithms,and combines with the cloud model theory to construct the risk assessment model of civil aviation security.Finally,the reliability of the model is verified through the risk flight data provided by the air police department,which proves the practical effect of the risk evaluation model of civil aviation security,and provides an important idea forthe dynamic dispatch mode of airpolice services.