信息技术发展如何影响劳动力跨行业流动?——基于工作任务与技能类型的实证研究

How does Information Technology Development Affect Labor Mobility across Industries?An Empirical Study Based on Job Tasks and Skill Types

在新一代信息技术与各产业不断融合发展的背景下,关注受信息技术影响的劳动者如何通过跨行业流动实现再就业显得尤为重要。本文实证分析地区—行业层面信息技术渗透度对微观劳动者跨行业流动的影响。研究发现:行业信息技术渗透度的提升会显著增加该行业劳动者跨行业流动的概率。一方面,行业信息技术渗透度的提升分别通过就业替代效应和结构效应提高常规任务从业者和非常规认知任务从业者的跨行业流动概率;另一方面,行业信息技术渗透度的提升会促使高、中技能水平劳动者跨行业流动。针对流动方向的分析表明,从事常规任务劳动者倾向于被动地“向下流动”,流向与原行业“技能距离”较远的行业,并承受一定的工资损失。本研究为科学评估信息技术发展对劳动就业的结构影响,以及制定新一代信息技术与产业融合的就业配套政策提供参考。

Under the background of the continuous integration and development of the new generation of information technology and vari⁃ous industries,it is particularly important to pay attention to how the workers affected by information technology can achieve re-employment through cross-industry mobility.This paper empirically analyzes the impact of information technology penetration at the region-industry level on the cross-industry mobility of individual workers.We find that the improvement of the penetration of information technology at the industry level significantly increases the probability of worker mobility across industries.On the one hand,the improvement of industry information technology penetration significantly improves the cross-industry mobility probability of workers engaging in routine tasks and non-routine cog⁃nitive tasks through employment substitution effect and composition effect;On the other hand,it promotes the cross-industry mobility of highskilled and medium-skilled workers.The analysis of the flow direction shows that under the influence of the increasing penetration of informa⁃tion technology,workers engaged in routine tasks tend to passively"flow downward",flowing to industries with a large"skill distance"from the original industry,and bear wage losses.This study provides a reference for evaluating the structural impact of information technology devel⁃opment on labor and employment,and formulating supporting employment policies for the integration of the new generation of information tech⁃nology and industry.