减税激励、供应链溢出与稳就业

Tax Cut Incentives,Supply Chain Spillover Effect and Employment Stabilization

在经济下行压力加大时期,减税激励是促进就业的重要举措,而供应链是税收激励政策传导的关键机制。本文尝试利用手工构建的上市公司三级供应链网络数据库,探究中游企业减税激励对上下游企业就业人数的影响。研究发现:(1)中游企业税率降低会显著促进上下游企业增加劳动力雇佣,并且这一效应在上游企业中更为明显;(2)机制分析表明,就业促进效应主要是通过商业信贷和产需行为两种渠道传导至上下游企业;(3)异质性检验显示,当中游为民营企业,或者上下游企业的劳动力密集度、与中游企业的购销业务集中度较高时,减税激励的就业溢出效应更加显著;(4)这种溢出效应不仅影响一级供销商,而且会传导至更高层级的供应商。本文为理解减税激励政策和供应链参与的影响提供了新的视角,也为实现稳就业目标提供了政策启示。

In the period of increasing economic downward pressure,tax reduction is an important measure to promote employment,and the supply chain is the key mechanism of tax incentive policy transmission.Using the three-level supply chain network database of listed com⁃panies constructed by manual matching,this paper explores the impact of tax incentives on the employment of upstream and downstream enter⁃prises.This study finds that:(1)Lower tax rate of midstream enterprises will significantly promote the upstream and downstream corporations to increase labor employment,and this effect is more prominent in the upstream enterprises;(2)The mechanism analysis shows that the em⁃ployment promotion effect is mainly transmitted to other corporations through two channels:commercial credit and production-demand behav⁃ior;(3)The heterogeneity test shows that this employment spillover effect is mainly concentrated in the situation where the midstream enter⁃prise is private-owned,or the upstream and downstream enterprises are equiped with higher labor intensity or closer purchase-sales connec⁃tion with the midstream.;(4)The spillover effect not only affects the primary suppliers and customers,but also transmits to higher level.This paper provides a new perspective for understanding the impact of tax incentive policy and supply chain participation,and also provides policy enlightenment for improving employment policy.