世界经济中心转换的规律性及其对世界格局的影响

The Regularities of Periodical Transformation of the Global Economic Leaders and Its Impact on theWorld Structure

根据全球社会经济发展长周期理论,随着世界经济型式的更迭,世界经济之“极”的形成和消亡呈周期性变化。当前正在形成的新世界经济型式是一体性世界经济型式。该型式有三种具体类型:社会主义、民主主义与寡头政治。世界新秩序将在这三者的竞争中形成——主要是前两者的竞争,因为美国统治精英发动的全球混合战争将注定失败。新的一体性世界经济型式将产生一个两极核心:中国和印度。至少从17世纪起,俄罗斯就成为了具有世界影响力的独立一极,但要摆脱目前在新旧世界经济型式核心之间的边缘地位,俄罗斯必须彻底调整经济政策,在新技术型式的基础上落实加速发展战略;随着全球混合战争的结束,美国用来维护其霸权的国际组织(北约等)的影响力将迅速消退。一体性世界经济型式恢复了国家主权和以其为基础的国际法的重要性,这就决定了未来地缘政治格局的多样性。与此同时,文明相似度、精神价值观和共同历史命运等非经济一体化因素的重要性也会显著上升。也就是说,一体性经济型式的多极性将具有文明内涵。

According to the long-term theory of global social and economic development,with the change in world economic mode,the formation and disappearance of the"pole"of the world economy changes periodically.At present,a new type of global economic mode is being formed:an integrated global economic mode.There are three specific types of this new mode:communism,democracy,and oligarchy.The new world order will be formed in the competition between the three-mainly the competition between the first two because the global hybrid war launched by the American ruling elite will be doomed to failure.The new integrated world economic mode will produce a bipolar core:communist China and democratic India.At least since the 17th century,Russia has become an independent pole with world influence,but to get rid of its current marginal position in the world economy,Russia must completely adjust its economic policy and implement an accelerated development strategy based on new technologies.With the end of the global hybrid war,the influence of international organizations(NATO,etc.)used by the United States to maintain its hegemony will rapidly fade.The integrated global economic mode has restored national sovereignty and international law based on sovereignty,which determines the diversity of geopolitical paterns in the future.At the same time,non-economic integration factors such as civilization similarity,spiritual values,and common historical destiny will also rise significantly.In other words,the multipolarity of the integrated world economy will contain the connotation of civilization.